In this modern day, thousands of accounts on social media pride themselves on being the best horse racing tipsters. These accounts will typically post their best winners, while also promising links to leading yards, which indicate that they have inside knowledge.
However, newcomers to betting on horse racing will typically fall for the disguise of ‘experts’, despite their results not exactly being as strong as are promised.
Therefore, it is always important to do your own research on the strike rate of a bettor before making a first wager to bet on the sport here: https://www.twinspires.com/
But, understanding what to look out for can be hugely important in order to work out the most accurate strike rate of a tipster on social media. Below, you can find out more about how to verify the record of a tipster.
Tracking
A simple way to monitor how a tipster performs is to track any selections in advance of signing up for an account.
This may be a time-consuming exercise, but it can pinpoint an exact collection of past performances and the number of winners that have been achieved. This should be done in advance of a major meeting if you’re thinking of signing up for a page for a big event such as Royal Ascot or the Cheltenham Festival.
You can write down all bets that have been put forward, and make a note of how each selection performs. Winners and losers can be recorded accurately by checking the latest results on the BBC Sport website, while you can create your own profit-loss record for the tipster, taking into account their potential each-way selections at bigger prices. However, in order to get the most accurate record of results, you may need a sample size of thousands of horses to get the best understanding.
Proofing
A growing theme on social media is tipsters creating fake betting slips to show winning selections at bigger odds than were available. These images are very realistic, but there are tools available to prove any suspect slips.
Gemini is an excellent free option for fans to ask whether a bet slip is correct, since fake slips often use a different font than the one used at the sportsbook.
Tipsters using this approach will try to show their knowledge to a newcomer by getting the biggest possible odds for a short-priced selection, but these can often be incorrect to rewrite their profit-and-loss record.
Price Availability
Unlike other sports, horse racing is a betting option that is predominantly about timing. Getting the best odds available is essential to getting value, meaning a tipster will typically put forward their selections after first placing their money.
This can be a negative for those who are signed up to one of the most popular tipsters, with the entire membership streaming in to get odds, leading to a collapse in a horse’s price. This could see an 8/1 selection shorten to odds of 3/1 or shorter, meaning that the edge is no longer with the bettor.
Strike Rate Records
Understanding the reliability of a tipster will revolve around understanding the difference between a Strike Rate and a Return on Stakes (ROI).
The former is one of the most popular metrics used for working out the reliability of a tipster, but it can also be easily manipulated. This is due to a potential tipster putting forward odds-on favourites to improve their record. Therefore, the most reliable tipsters will instead show their ROI.
This will actually record the net profit of the bettor by the total amount staked. This is capable of showing a tipster with a modest strike rate, but one that could generate far more in returns if they are betting on bigger-priced selections. Of course, few sports are as challenging to find winners in as horse racing, so a reliable ROI range of 2% to 10% is likely accurate, and those with a higher ROI are likely using a smaller sample size to manipulate their returns.
How to Find A Reliable Tipster?
After assessing the factors mentioned above, you will be able to pinpoint the most accurate and reliable tipsters. As a general rule, the most trustworthy tipsters are honest about their losses, since no expert can record wins in every race throughout the season, and transparency matters.
Furthermore, tipsters that have yearly records of their results are generally more reliable, as you will have hundreds or thousands of horses to consider as a baseline for results.
Finally, you will need to determine what you want out of an experience with a tipster, as some will specialize in finding outsiders that are capable of outrunning big odds, while others will be more prominent in putting forward short-priced favorites.
