The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is rapidly approaching, set for June 7, 2025, at Saratoga Race Course. This year, the final jewel of the Triple Crown carries a notable $2 million purse and will be contested at a distance of 1¼ miles due to ongoing renovations at Belmont Park.
This distance aligns with the Kentucky Derby, setting the stage for a potentially thrilling rematch between Sovereignty, the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner, and Journalism, the winner of the 2025 Preakness Stakes. Examining the likely contenders and their current odds reveals key betting opportunities for racing enthusiasts.
Anticipating the Favorites
The potential showdown between Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes victor Journalism highlights the top of the 2025 Belmont Stakes field.
Belmont Stakes current odds indicate Sovereignty as the 8-5 favorite in the early betting markets, while Journalism sits closely behind at 9-5. The contrasting paths to the Belmont — Sovereignty’s strategic rest versus Journalism’s quick turnaround — add layers of complexity to handicapping.
Sovereignty’s Preparation and Pedigree
Sovereignty’s connections opted to bypass the Preakness, providing the colt a significant five-week rest period leading into the Belmont. This decision, focusing on the horse’s fitness by trainer Bill Mott, is a tactic previously employed in successful campaigns.
A recent workout at Saratoga saw Sovereignty cover four furlongs in 49.76 seconds, indicating he is in sharp condition. His pedigree, by Into Mischief out of a Bernardini mare named Crowned, suggests versatility and stamina suitability for the distance.
Journalism’s Resilience and Schedule
Journalism demonstrated remarkable grit in the Preakness Stakes, overcoming interference to rally from off the pace and win just two weeks after finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. This performance showcased his closing speed and tenacity. Trainer Michael McCarthy was evaluating whether to run the colt in the Belmont due to the demanding Triple Crown schedule, and his inclusion promises fireworks. Journalism’s Curlin pedigree is favorable for handling the 1 1/4-mile trip at Saratoga.
Assessing the Top Challengers
Beyond the expected top two, several other runners present compelling cases for inclusion among the main contenders, offering potential value in betting pools. Baeza, who was third in the Kentucky Derby, is listed at 7-2 on the early odds board, positioned as a serious threat.
His performance in the Derby, where he finished only a neck behind Journalism, indicated strong closing ability. Another notable contender is Rodriguez, priced at 6-1, returning after missing earlier Triple Crown races.
Baeza’s Advantage and Bloodlines
Baeza earned his Derby spot through late scratches and started from an outside post position at significant odds. Despite the challenging setup, he made up considerable ground, rallying from fifteenth to third. Like Sovereignty, Baeza skipped the Preakness, meaning he arrives at Saratoga well-rested. His pedigree includes McKinzie, a son of 2007 Derby winner Street Sense, and Puca, who is by the stamina-rich Big Brown, making him well-suited for the 1 1/4-mile distance.
Rodriguez’s Return to Training
Rodriguez, a winner of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, was sidelined from the Kentucky Derby and Preakness due to a foot issue. He is reportedly back in training, raising the possibility of a Belmont start. Trainer Bob Baffert, known for success in major races, prepares the colt. Rodriguez recently completed a workout covering seven furlongs in 1:24.80 at Santa Anita Park, with his trainer expressing satisfaction.
However, his form after the layoff remains less certain compared to more active contenders.
Other Possible Entrants
The 2025 Belmont Stakes field could feature several other horses adding depth and potential for exotic wagers. Hill Road, trained by Chad Brown, solidified his candidacy with a victory in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes, a key prep race for the Belmont, and is listed at 10-1.
Heart of Honor, an English-bred colt trained by Jaime Osborne, finished fifth in the Preakness after a slow start and carries odds of 20-1. Crudo, trained by Todd Pletcher, comes off a front-running win in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard.
Additional possible starters include Final Gambit, who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby and may target the Belmont. Sandman, third in the Preakness, was initially reported to skip the Belmont in favor of the Jim Dandy Stakes, but remains listed as a possible entrant by NYRA. Gosger, the Preakness runner-up, has been confirmed to bypass the race.
Race Dynamics and Distance Factor
The shift of the Belmont Stakes to Saratoga Race Course and the subsequent reduction in distance to 1 1/4 miles significantly influence the potential race dynamics.
This shorter distance, traditionally 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park, emphasizes tactical speed more than pure stamina. Horses that can maintain a good position close to the pace or make a sustained run from slightly off the pace are often favored. The Saratoga track configuration also differs from Belmont Park, potentially favoring different running styles.
The strategic decision by Sovereignty and Baeza’s connections to skip the Preakness means they arrive at Saratoga with five weeks of rest, a potential advantage in handling the demands of the race. Conversely, Journalism will be running his third race in five weeks, a challenging schedule that tested his resilience in the Preakness.
The pace of the race could be set by horses with early speed, such as Rodriguez or potentially Gosger if he were running, which could impact the effectiveness of closers.
Betting Outlook and Expert Insights
Betting on the Belmont Stakes involves analyzing form, pedigree, trainer and jockey performance, and the unique conditions of the race. The early odds of Sovereignty at 8-5 and Journalism at 9-5 reflect their status as likely favorites based on their Triple Crown wins. However, the Belmont often presents opportunities for horses beyond the top couple of choices. Baeza, at 7-2, presents a compelling alternative as a rested horse with proven closing ability against the favorites.
Expert handicappers like Jody Demling, who correctly predicted the top three Kentucky Derby finishers and the Preakness exacta this year, provide valuable perspectives. Demling is reportedly looking past the two favorites, suggesting there is value in other contenders. He views an underdog as potentially “the best value in the race” and is sharing his projected leaderboard.
Utilizing expert analysis and considering horses like Baeza with rest and pedigree advantages can inform your betting strategy. The shift in distance to 1 1/4 miles means assessing a horse’s ability to sustain speed over this specific trip at Saratoga is crucial.
