On September 4th, the curtain lifts and the NFL returns with perhaps its most wide-open season in recent memory. A year ago, the Kansas City Chiefs were about to embark on a historic run for the elusive three-peat, and they very nearly completed the impossible mission. A 15-2 regular season, coupled with postseason victories over the Houston Texans and the Buffalo Bills, saw them reach the Super Bowl for the third straight year and come within one win of destiny.
Unfortunately, however, the Philadelphia Eagles had other ideas. Buoyed by a lack of faith from analysts and bookmakers alike, the Birds ripped up the script and utterly ran through Patrick Mahomes’ history seekers. The mercurial quarterback was sacked a career-high six times en route to a 40-22 demolition job on the grandest stage. Fast forward to now, and perhaps surprisingly, neither the champion Eagles nor the formerly dominant Chiefs top the Lombardi real-time betting charts.
The most up-to-date real-time betting Bovada odds currently list the championship-less Buffalo Bills as the +600 favorites to secure a maiden Super Bowl triumph. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens are just behind them at +650. But that isn’t the only surprise in the preseason betting lists.
More shockers can be found in the “to reach the playoffs” market. Here are two teams that the bookies consider odds-on favorites to reach the postseason in 2025, and why any potential backers should remain somewhat skeptical.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati’s offense is a poster for optimism. Joe Burrow, when healthy, processes like a chess grandmaster—pre-snap control, post-snap clarity, timing that turns tight windows into layups. He led the league in both throwing yards and touchdowns last season in arguably the finest year of his career on a personal level. With triple crown winner Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals have two top-10 receivers who can win on the boundary and punish single coverage. That trio alone explains why markets lean into a price of -120 to reach the playoffs.
40 TD’s on the year now for Joe Burrow ✅ pic.twitter.com/hhiOAyAotI
— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) December 28, 2024
But the numbers that matter most tell a harsher story. The Bengals finished 9-8 in 2024 and missed the playoffs for a second straight year. The defense was the strain point, ranking 25th in points allowed and surrendering too many explosives. Their first preseason runout versus the Eagles didn’t soothe concerns; the unit looked slow to trigger, gave up yards after first contact, and struggled to close plays even when the initial read was right. That’s not about talent as much as communication, angles, and consistency—fixable, yes, but not guaranteed.
The pattern that truly drags value? Slow starts. Cincinnati has opened 0-2 in three straight seasons, forcing Burrow into weekly uphill sprints in the toughest neighborhood in football. Their AFC North rival, Baltimore Ravens, are ruthlessly efficient, while the rebuilt Pittsburgh Steelers are happy to suffocate games into 20-17 rock fights. In that context, a sloppy September becomes a fatal October.
To reach the postseason, Cincy requires a cleaner explosive profile on defense, a jump in early-down efficiency to avoid third-and-long traps, and a healthy Burrow. Recent evidence says their margin for error remains razor-thin, while their current odds-on assume health and defensive correction. That’s a lot to assume.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos’ return to relevance made noise. A 10-win season and a first postseason berth since 2015 last term, powered by a poised rookie year from Bo Nix, gave Mile High a heartbeat again. Nix stabilized the offense with quick-game timing, on-schedule throws, and enough movement to stress edges. The defense closed strong, flying to the ball and flipping a few key scripts in December.
But it’s impossible to ignore the hinge moment: Kansas City resting starters in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed secured. That decision nudged the entire AFC bracket and helped Denver slide in. It doesn’t erase the Broncos’ progress; it does put last year’s line between “in” and “out” in stark relief.
The AFC West is a gauntlet. The Chiefs still define the pace with layered route concepts and a ruthless defense. The Chargers carry enough top-end talent to rip off streaks and will be in every shootout. The Raiders added veteran stability with Geno Smith and injected more juice around their blue-chips, Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby. To live in this division, you need repeatable advantages: red-zone conversion at 60% or better, top-10 third-down rate, and a turnover margin that tilts green in the tight ones.
Denver’s questions are the right ones—and they’re unanswered. Will Year 2 tape on Nix invite defensive coordinators to muddy his reads with late safety rotation, force tighter outside throws, and shrink the easy yards? Can the Broncos generate explosives without compromising ball security? Can the front win with four often enough to avoid living and dying on blitz downs?
Ceiling: real. Floor: lower than an odds-on tag suggests. If Nix stacks progress and the defense maintains its late-season discipline, they’re a December factor. If the scouting report catches up and the division squeezes, the path narrows fast.
