If you did a study with 100 people that knew nothing about betting and asked them to pick 1 tip at random each day, come the end of the year, or season, the probability is that 1 or 2 of those people would show a healthy profit & ROI.
That’s just chance. Probability. Luck.
What’s my point? Well apply that to tipsters. There are thousands of tipsters on social media, some of them promoting excellent returns across a short space of time.
Are they expert tipsters or do they just happen to be those 1 or 2 lucky people from the 100 ignorant individuals from the hypothetical study above.
Take a platform like Tipstrr. They have 100s if not 1000s of tipsters sharing picks. Mainz play Union Berlin in the Bundesliga today and they have 66 tips on that match.
Across all the tips they pretty much have every outcome covered. BTTS Yes, BTTS No, Over 2.5 Goals, Under 2.5 Goals, Mainz to win, the Draw, the list goes on.
So whatever the outcome some of the tipsters will win money, others will lose. You’ll will inevitably end up with a few profiles making a good return, whilst the others will be hidden away in the depths of the platform.
The same kind of logic would apply to OLBG or even X. If the volume of tipsters is big enough, a few will simply get lucky.
This isn’t to imply that all profitable tipsters are lucky. Far from it. But over a small number of tips, results can be misleading. I’ve always followed the suggestion made by Dan Weston, many years ago, that a minimum of 1000 tips is needed to truly trust the stats of a tipster.
That said, you don’t want to potentially miss out following a new tipster that does have an edge on the bookmakers. So how do you decipher between an expert and a lucky punter?
Previews with the selections is one factor. If they come across as knowledgeable on their sport and offer insight behind each of their tips, it’s more likely they are not a chancer.
If they talk about value, rather than landing winners, you might be able to quickly make that distinction. A sensible staking plan should be a sign a tipster knows what they are doing.
Don’t be fooled into thinking just because a tipster has a large ROI pinned in their bio, that they are going to win you money, they may just have got lucky.