Any punter worth his salt knows that finding value is the only way to grow a bankroll. Wins are good, but having value in them is even better. Many new bettors go for betting tips without trying to understand whether there is value in the bets they are wagering. Tipsters have become popular because they are convenient; You subscribe and get tips in your email or SMS, which you can wager as advised. But value betting presents a better path to growing a bigger bankroll.
What is Value Betting?
A betting market offers value when the bookies have underestimated the probability of an outcome. A simplistic example would be someone making pricing the outcome of flipping a head of a coin at 2/1 (3.00). The chances of flipping heads are 50% or 1/1 (2.00). In such an example, the 2/1 price is a value bet because the chances of flipping heads are higher than the bookie established.
Value bets come up in sports all the time. The tricky part is identifying them among the thousands of games happening each day. Human tipsters can identify a few value bets in the sports and leagues they specialize in.
But AI machine algorithms can find thousands of value bets by crunching tons of historical game data. They can scour thousands of betting markets to find value bets across different sports. Get started with value betting over at RebelBetting where AI algorithms give hundreds of quality value bets a week.
How do the Two Compare?
Both human tipster services and AI algorithms have their advantages and shortcomings:
Type of Analysis
Human tipsters have the power to make qualitative analysis, which goes beyond the data. This analysis looks at the whole picture with different factors influencing a game’s outcome. These factors include fatigue, absence of a key player, quarrels in the team, change of management, and motivation.
AI algorithms cannot use qualitative input. For example, they cannot tell how badly a team needs to win to avoid relegation. However, these algorithms are good at crunching data going back several years.
Variety of Markets
Human tipsters have a narrow focus. Most tipsters concentrate on one sport and then pick 2-3 leagues to specialize. The analysis is wider but slower. A human tipster will give less than 10 quality tips in a weekend if they are well-researched.
AI algorithms scan hundreds of bookmakers to find value in thousands of matches in different sports. They turn up hundreds of value bets each day. You can then pick what you want for further vetting considering other factors such as motivation.
Bankroll Management
Human tipsters assess bet size from a subjective point or ‘gut feeling.’ There is also a challenge when dealing with multiple betting markets. A human tipster will be slow to do money management calculations like Kelly’s Criterion.
AI algorithms can do money management calculations on the fly. For each tip, the algorithm shows the stake size and the ‘Minimum Profitable Odds.’ Proper bankroll management ensures that your money grows gradually.
One advantage of AI Algorithms over human tipsters is that they do not decide based on emotions. They do not suffer pressure to change a strategy based on success or failure. They will make the same decisions depending on their programming.
Margins
Good human tipsters can generate good margins and even outperform AI algorithms. These higher margins are seen because of the higher quality of analysis. AI algorithms generate more signals, but a good percentage will be losers if applied without human vetting.
Adopting a combination of the two systems would be the smart thing to do. You can use human judgement to vet the higher number of signals generated by AI algorithms to improve the quality of the signal.
