One of the world’s biggest and most historic horse races will take place on Saturday, 3rd of May. The 151st Kentucky Derby is obviously a massive betting event, something akin to the Super Bowl of horse racing for American bettors. Nonetheless, it has an international following, too, and the race itself is worth catching, even if you don’t have any skin in the game.
If you aren’t familiar with the ins and outs of US horse racing, then we can cover you with a super-quick cheat sheet on all you need to know. You can read a Kentucky Betting betting guide for a more thorough analysis and historical trends, but this guide will get you up to speed on the 2025 race:
When and Where?
As ever, the Kentucky Derby will be held at Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY. The race goes off at 6:57pm local time, which means it starts at around midnight in the UK.
The Kentucky Derby Betting Market Leader
Journalism looks set to get the nod as the favourite for the big race. His odds are ranging from about 5/2 to 7/2 with bookmakers. He’s there for a few reasons, not least his 100% win record. Yet, while he showed his worth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in early April, the Kentucky Derby will be a sterner test. How he handles the larger field of 20 runners will be key to his chances.
The Contenders
No favourite has won the Kentucky Derby since 2018 (Justify), and we’ve had 80/1 winners since that time, so plenty of punters will be cautious about lumping in on Journalism. Interesting candidates in the betting markets include: Sovereignty, an early market leader thanks to a big win at Churchill Downs in October; Luxor Café, a Japanese-trained horse who’ll look to go one better than Forever Young (3rd last year) and become the first horse from Japan to win the race; Tappan Street, an interesting candidate who won the Florida Derby in late March.
The Field
There are 100s of horses eligible for the Kentucky Derby each year, and they get whittled down to a field of 20 through a series of prep races (known as the Road to the Kentucky Derby). Burnham Square topped the points list in that respect, so he will have some backers at 14/1 odds. Right behind Burnham Square came Sandman, who actually earned more prize money en route to securing his position in the Kentucky Derby. Tiztastic, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, and Final Gambit also scored notable successes across the prep races.
Main Narratives Before the 2025 Race
If you want a talking point for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, then look no further than the return of Bob Baffert to the Run for the Roses. The trainer, who is a six-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, served a three-year suspension due to medical violations. Baffert actually returned to Churchill Downs in December, but this will be the first time he has horses in the Kentucky Derby since 2021. His runners, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, aren’t among the market leaders, but they should be respected.
The Last Word on the 2025 Kentucky Derby
Journalism looks like a solid favourite, but this is a race that has thrown up lots of shock winners in recent years. It looks like an open race, and there are strong arguments to be made for at least a half dozen runners. Moreover, there can be good value in place betting further down the card. If it goes on form alone, Journalism might take it, but that’s not always the case in the Kentucky Derby. Don’t be surprised to see another long-odds winner.
