Fernando Verdasco v Fabio Fognini To Lose Set 1 And Win

Tennis - ATP Rio de Janeiro - 24 Feb 21:30

We are betting on a semi-final match from the Brazilian Open taking place between Fabio Fognini (#21) and Fernando Verdasco(#40).

First of all the bookies got the wrong favorite on this one, probably as a reaction to Fernando' s win against Thiem(#6).

Fognini has the better clay court record overall standing at 354/207, while Verdasco stands at 266/156. It s pretty clear the Spaniard is going against Fognini on his favorite surface in one of the Italian' s favorite tournaments, too. He made the final here in 2015 and also got a win against Nadal so good memories for Fabio here.

Fognini also has the better form coming into this match standing at a 8/3 (2018) compared to Verdasco' s 6/4 (2018).

Fognini also won their most recent encounter at the Shangai Masters, winning after dropping the first set, so the fact it already happen against Verdasco is good sign for our bet.

The most important statistic in my opinion is that in Fognini's last 10 wins, he dropped the first set in 9/10 occasions (just Fognini being Fognini), if we take into consideration the Davis Cup matches, he is on a 7/7 run of losing the first set to then go and win the match.

Confidence must be high right now for Verdasco after his win over Thiem, still he will need to be able and close out the match which will be very diffictul against Fabio on clay.

Odds of 7.00 just looks a bit high, double stakes on this one!
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