Burnley v Swansea

Football - Premier League - 13 Aug 15:00

This tip is for Burnley to beat Swansea at home.

I fancy Burnley's chance to stay up this season and I think they will get off to a good start in their opening game. Dyche has ingrained a winning mentality in to his players once again, following a successful season in the Championship. They are a team who have huge amounts of self-belief in their style and are very tough to break down, especially when playing in their own ground.

Burnley's home record last season read 15-7-2 which is a pretty amazing record for a league as competitive as the Championship. They went unbeaten at Turf Moor in the last 13 league games and will know that they will have to make it quite the fortress this season if they are going to fight the drop.

The Clarets have a goal threat up front with the likes of Gray and Vokes, along with Boyd and Arfield in midfield. Add to that their new signing Gudmunsson who got the most assists in the Championship for Reading last season and you have a team with attacking flair who are very clear on their style of play on the field and will be looking to start the season off strongly, in front of what will no doubt be a vociferous Turf Moor in their first game back in the Premier League.

They will be up against a Swansea side who I think are going to struggle this season, particularly in defence. I have been very impressed with their swoop for Borja Baston who will no doubt be their top goalscorer this season with the ease he has in finding the net as he showed for mediocre side Eibar last season. However, they have got rid of their skipper and the rock of their defence in Williams and I don't think they can replace him with any defender they can afford, simple as. They got rid of him for 12 million and when you consider that the likes of Tomkins is costing teams 10 million, then you should know you're not going to get anywhere near replacing Williams for that money. I can't stress enough the importance of this sale as I think that not only will it affect their organization at the back, but will also have a huge impact on the dressing room as their leader has abandoned ship.

Swansea had the 5th worst away record in the league last season reading 4-5-10 which means this bet would have landed in 10/19 which shows the kind of value on offer here.

All in all, we're getting 2.5 for a team full of confidence unbeaten in their last 13 games at Turf Moor against a side who aren't that big a stepping stone from Championship level and who struggle on the road, depleted of their best defender and leader. The odds on a home win drifted from 2.7 at the news of Williams' departure but I think it should be around 2.2 so there is definite value in this price.
nogzinho - Paddy Power Stats
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Bets Placed

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