With the first Classics of the season behind us, and most of the key Derby trials run, it’s time to look ahead to what will hopefully be another glorious summer’s day at Epsom in early June. The weather doesn’t usually let us down for the premier 3 year old Group 1 of the season and stables big, and less big, will be hoping it’s their colt or filly (unlikely since not one has even attempted it since 1998 when 1000 Guineas winner Cape Verdi took her chance as the 11/4 favourite and finished 9th) that the sun shines down on come post time on June 3rd.
With the newly named Poundland Hill forming the somewhat controversial backdrop to this year’s race, and all the press eyes on the behaviour of the crowd after damaging reports in recent years, organisers will be desperately hoping the meeting goes off without a hitch. The race itself will hopefully be a clean affair, too, although it’s not a race where you tend to get hard luck stories and the best horse usually rises to the top on the day.
At time of writing Aiden O’Brien has 27 horses still declared for the race so it’s as much a battle to establish who will run as it is to work out who will win! What we do know is that the Ballydoyle master has won it five times, including three times in the past five years and will be a major threat to all, whoever he sends over. Ryan Moore will be looking for this third win in the race and will leave his decision late before deciding who to ride.
A 4/1 chance just a few days ago, one horse who now looks unlikely to take his chance is 2000 Guineas winner Churchill. The son of Galileo is now as big as 10/1, with most bookies (and bigger still on the exchanges) suggesting that his connections are worried about the longer trip and will keep him to a mile. There’s no doubt he’s the hottest three year old talent around but there’s a big difference between racing at a mile and racing at a mile and a half and to expect him to be a middle distance superstar, too, is asking a lot.
The repercussions of Churchill’s drift mean Cliffs Of Moher, winner of the Dee Stakes at Chester and another Ballydoyle inmate, has been cut to 4/1 favourite from 11/2 ish, whilst Cracksman, who didn’t end up taking his chance in the Dante due to the soft ground, has been backed into around the 4/1 mark. Confidence behind Cliffs Of Moher seems to be growing in the wake of the Churchill rumours and plenty of people are jumping on that particular bandwagon. Backers should be aware,, though, that the last horse to win the Dee Stakes and the Derby was Kris Kin back in 2003, so it’s fair to say it’s not a trial that screams Derby winner.
Cracksman, however, is a son of Frankel, representing top English trainer, John Gosden, and has done all that’s been asked of him so far. The fact that a horse he has beaten already, Permian (now 12/1 for Epsom glory), went on to win the Dante at York is another reason Cracksman’s odds have been slashed and he’s now the choice of many a shrewd judge. He’ll be looking to follow in Golden Horn’s footsteps for his excellent trainer and would appear to have every chance of doing just that.
Eminent, who was well fancied and ran well enough in the Guineas and who is another son of Frankel comes next in the market at 10/1 whilst the gamble on Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Ocean seems to have gone astray. Only 3rd in the Dante, it now seems as though he may not even take his chance in this year’s showpiece.
With a few lesser trials still to be run, both here and across the Irish Sea, the picture will become clearer over the coming days, but even if Churchill doesn’t turn up, there is enough in place for us to expect another great Derby to add to the list.