Inspired Irish Spark Market Movement

Bookmakers were scrambling to recalculate their world cup odds as Ireland stunned the much fancied Australians in Eden Park on Saturday. The greatest performance by an Irish team at a world cup has thrown the world cup wide open with the Tri-Nations 'Big 3' all now on the same side of the draw. The probable lineup for the quarter finals now looks like this:

New Zealand v Argentina/Scotland

South Africa v Australia

England v France

Ireland v Wales

New Zealand will undoubtedly progress to the semis where they will face a familiar foe in either Australia or South Africa. Given their recent record against both sides, particularly at home, they are still big favourites to win the tournament at odds of 1.57

Australia, now on the far more difficult side, have lengthened from 5.0 to 8.0 in most places. It will be interesting to see how the Aussies bounce back as the talent available to them means they are still more than capable of winning this world cup. The return of David Pocock from injury will be crucial. 

Opinion seems divided on South Africa with odds between 9.0 and 13.0 available. They may have disposed of Fiji with ease but were far from convincing against Wales and having to beat both NZ and Aus to even reach the final means I would have them at even bigger odds.

The other side of the draw is even more intriguing because it is so open. My tip from the outset France, will have been delighted with the Irish win and were cut from 17.0 to around 10.0 without even playing. However, the bookies must not have been impressed by their performance against Canada as they are now back out to as much as 16.0. Although it is a similar situation to South Africa as many bookies have them at 10.0 or 11.0. I wouldn't read too much into the French performance against Canada. They won comfortably without playing close to their strongest side. Therefore I still feel their odds offer tremendous value.

England were pushed all the way by Argentina and were fortunate that the Pumas lost captain Felipe Contempomi early on. They then struggled to break down Georgia before pulling away in the second half. The Irish result again suits them to an extent, although their odds haven't changed much and they are still in around 11.0. I certainly think they should be priced higher.

And what of Ireland? The side whose efforts have caused these changes are, of course, the biggest market movers. They were available at a huge price last week after their poor showing against the USA, somewhere around 41.0. Now some bookmakers have them in to 17.0 while others have them between 23.0 and 28.0. Given their impressive recent record against Wales and England I think there is terrific value around if your bookmakers are still offering each way terms. 

Wales' great performance against South Africa has been completely overshadowed by Ireland's win. They were perhaps a little fortunate to beat Samoa yesterday but have taken a significant step towards the quarter finals. That said they still have to beat Fiji who famously dumped them out in 2007. Wales look better than they have done in the last couple of years and will be quietly confident of achieving great things. 23.0 is the average price available about them but again value can be found with 40.0 floating about. 

Taking this all into account I know three things. One, it is great to be Irish right now and our expectations have soared. Two, I'm feeling even better about backing France before the tournament. Three, and probably most crucially....... someone still has to beat the All Blacks!