Spain vs Argentina
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This tennis betting tip is from the final of the Davis Cup between Spain and Argentina which will be played on indoor clay courts in Seville.
Unfortunately I haven't found any good tips from the first round of the Paris Masters so am getting in a nice early tip on Spain to win the Davis Cup.
The current price of 1.21 is the best we can possibly hope for. Going into the final in December I expect Spain to be around 1.10.
There is possibly some concern at the moment regarding the fitness of Rafael Nadal due to the amount of time he's taken off recently. I wouldn't worry however, my feeling is that Nadal is currently getting himself into the best possible shape to go all out at trying to win the ATP Tour finals in London. I think that like last year he'll get very close to winning that tournament on indoor hard courts and then will have no problem beating his Argentinian opponents on clay in front of his home crowd a few days later.
Nadal had a slump after the US Open this year but nobody should be too surprised about that. He's had similar ups and downs in his form throughout his career but he almost always manages to get himself into top shape for the tournaments that really matter to him.
David Ferrer seems to have learnt a lot from Nadal in recent years. He's been in great shape for the last couple of years and has become a monster on the court. On clay he's possibly the third best player in the world. He's also learnt how to peak for the events that really matter to him.
I don't expect much from Ferrer in Paris this week where the courts are too fast for him. I think he'll do quite well in London however, where the courts are a bit slower, and come into the Davis Cup final with plenty of confidence.
Spain have had so much success in the Davis Cup in recent years and with the home crowd behind them things will be extremely difficult for Argentina.
Just have a look at the results from the semi-finals of the Davis Cup between Spain and France in September. The beatings that Nadal and Ferrer handed out to Tsonga, Gasquet and Simon where quite incredible. I doubt that Del Potro, Nalbandian or Monaco can do any better for Argentina.
Del Potro has been in fairly good form lately but is now suffering with a shoulder injury. He'll probably be in ok shape for the final but he's not in the same league as Nadal on a clay court. He certainly still lacks the stamina of Nadal and Ferrer over five sets of tennis.
Nalbandian is similar to Del Potro in that his best level of tennis is very high. His problem is however, that his body just can't handle 5 sets of tennis. He's currently out with a hamstring injury and will have to work very hard to get into any sort of match fitness in time for this match.
Juan Monaco impressed last week in Valencia but is such a long way off the level of Nadal or Ferrer that he'll probably only be selected for the doubles.
Argentina will have a good chance of winning the doubles but apart from that they only have a small chance of winning one of the singles matches (Del Potro vs Ferrer). All the other matches will almost certainly be foregone conclusions.
If any of the Spanish players withdraws with injury they have plenty of decent claycourters in reserve. Almagro is having the best season of his career and although Del Potro may be able to beat him, his superior fitness would mean that Nalbandian would have very little chance against him.
Verdasco would also do a good job if he were called up by the Spanish captain and I'd expect him to beat at least one of the Argentinian players.
All in all I can't see any hope whatsoever for Argentina in this tie and Spain look like an absolute banker.