ATP Tour Finals, London - Outright winner - R.Nadal
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This tennis betting tip is for Rafael Nadal to win the ATP Tour Finals in London.
There is clearly a bit of a risk involved in this bet as Nadal has been out for the last few weeks but the price here is too long for a player who came so close to winning this title last year.
He's certainly had a tough year but I'm confident he will finish the season strongly, not only here in London but also winning the Davis Cup for Spain, one week later.
So what has Nadal been up to in the last few weeks since crashing out in Shanghai against Florian Mayer? Well it's almost impossible to get any reliable information out of the Nadal camp but I guess he's spent every day in the gym, getting his body into the sort of shape he is known for.
He is well aware that his game relies almost entirely on his physicality. When he's in shape he's almost unbeatable on any surface, but when he's out of shape there are many players on tour who are capable of beating him.
He's now 25 years old which means that he's been on tour for 8 years, in which time he and his team have become experts at getting him into the best possible shape for the tournaments that matter most to him.
This time two years ago he didn't bother to get in shape for London and instead he focused on the Australian Open. This year everything indicates that he is taking the ATP Tour finals extremely seriously. He said that he was pulling out of the Paris Masters to get himself ready for a strong end to the season.
In London I don't see Nadal having too many problems getting out of the group stage. I don't see any of the players ranked 5-8 being a threat to him on the fairly slow surface in the O2 arena.
Once he gets to the semi-final I expect him to be in good shape and to have built up the necessary confidence to go for the title. There are injury concerns surrounding Djokovic, Murray lacks the mental strength to win big matches against the top 4 and Federer (who Nadal has a great record against) has maybe peaked to soon.
I'm very happy to back Nadal here as we know that he will give 100% in every match that he plays and that he is likely to be an absolute monster on court. I think if anyone beats him they will have to put in an extraordinary performance.
At the end of such a tough season my feeling is that we'll see Nadal back to his very best and winning the only big tournament he has yet to win.
I'm almost certain that this price will prove to be very good value.