Zhizhen Zhang v Oscar Otte

Tennis - Zhuhai Challenger - 06 Mar 03:30

Zhang is a talented 21 year old playing at home. Unlike most Chinese players he is tall at 6' 4" with a big serve and heavy hitting game style. A big hitting game is generally a good strategy as underdog and he has made it work well in the past having won 8 of his 19 matches priced 3 to 6 for a 69% ROI. He has played well in recent weeks without reward and has a 25% ROI across all matches lifetime. I suspect he will continue to be a profitable player to back as he improves.

Otte had easily his best year on tour in 2017 and seems to be being over valued as a result. He is similar to Zhang being 6' 5" with a strong serve though he has a more nuanced baseline game. His ROI is -11% over his last 50 matches and -50% over his last 10. Priced 1.2 to 1.5 he has a -7% ROI and has lost 5 of his last 10 for a -31% ROI. He has a 2-4 record as favourite in 2018 and has looked very up and down in general. I doubt he will find this match easy under normal circumstances.

Always tough to price young, up and coming players but trends suggest he is good value for this match and having watched both recently I have to agree. My price would be 2.75 to 3. Standard stake.
TennisPilot +3369.35
Stake: 10 3.40William Hill
Best Odds

Posted 9 months ago

Bets Placed

jugger (+5,227.79) bet £20.00 on this tip.


CD (+4,564.71) bet £10.00 on this tip.


Woland (+8,736.79) bet £10.00 on this tip.


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