Fabio Fognini vs Rafael Nadal

Tennis - Shanghai Masters - 12 Oct 11:00

Odds: 7.9 @ Marathonbet>>> BET NOW

Little hesitant to take on Nadal given the level he's been playing at recently but these odds are too big in my opinion.

It is often a good strategy taking Nadal on at short prices on hard courts. Just last week in Beijing when priced 1.15 against Lucas Pouille he traded at 7 in play when a set and match points down. His lifetime record priced sub 1.2 in ATP and Masters events on indoor and outdoor hard court is 124-17 for a -4% ROI. Over his last 50 matches that ROI goes to -8%.

The main two reason Nadal does worse on hard courts than clay are speed and bounce height. Shanghai is especially fast and low bouncing of the hard courts on tour and so unsurprisingly Nadal has a poor 13-7 record at the event. Most notably, he's lost 6 of his 17 matches priced sub 1.5 at the event and 2 of his 9 matches priced sub 1.2. You would have made a lot of money from blind backing his opponents at this event.

Fognini is also better than his average opponent at this odds range. He's famously temperamental so it's a good sign that he has played very well this week so far and looked superb at points against Pouille last round winning priced 2.37. He has also been a profitable player to back with a 20% ROI this year and has won 3 of his last 10 matches priced 6+ in main tour events going back to 2013.

Fognini enjoys the challenge of this match up and you would have made a lot of money backing him in every H2H meeting. He has defeated Nadal at odds of 10, 9 and 3.6 in the past and earlier this year lost to Nadal 7-6(3) 3-6 6-4 on the clay of Madrid. Nadal is a very aggressive, powerful player and Fognini a natural counter puncher who enjoys raising his game to match his opponent, so it makes sense for him to enjoy playing top opponents. He has a 10-49 record and 8% ROI lifetime against top 10 opponents which suggests as much.

Hard match to price but I would certainly say anything 8 or above is worth a bet, though maybe half stakes at 8.

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TennisPilot +2196.25
Stake: 10 7.90Marathonbet
Bets Placed
Wieslaw

Wieslaw (+4.38) bet £10.00 on this tip.

8.70
Woland

Woland (+3,122.02) bet £10.00 on this tip.

8.70
CJ

CJ (+2,750.34) bet £2.00 on this tip.

8.70
Betting Masta

Betting Masta (+2,765.30) bet £33.00 on this tip.

8.70
Row Z

Row Z (+1,000.29) bet £10.00 on this tip.

8.70
Dave

Dave (+556.20) bet £50.00 on this tip.

8.70
Simon

Simon (+13,169.05) bet £10.00 on this tip.

8.70
slizorn

slizorn (+428.61) bet £5.00 on this tip.

7.00
CD

CD (+3,501.69) bet £10.00 on this tip.

8.22
Dutch

Dutch (+374.39) bet £6.00 on this tip.

8.17
SlugForAButt

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7.90
Hoops

Hoops (+1,040.59) bet £10.00 on this tip.

7.90
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