ATP 2017 Top Australian Bernard Tomic

Tennis - Season Special - 01 Nov 10:00

This is a two part tip, backing one of Kyrgios or Tomic to be top Aussie at the end of 2017. I addressed Kyrgios in the first half of the preview, and I will now discuss Tomic and other contenders in this second part of the tip.

Tomic is similar to Kyrgios in style in many ways. Tall at 6' 5", with flat ground strokes and a fairly aggressive style. He doesn't have the same big match attitude, so performs less effectively against top players, but is more established on tour having been inside the top 56 since 2011 and more consistent temperamentally on the whole.

In reverse chronological order his rank since turning pro in 2008 is as follows: 26, 18, 56, 51, 52, 42, 208, 286, 763. His last couple of years show clear progress and his results from 2011-2014 highlight his consistency on tour. He has won this market 3 of the last 6 years.

If Tomic wins the matches he should win on the whole, he will finish the year ranked above everyone else except (probably) Kyrgios. That's the aim of this part of the tip: to ensure that even if Kyrgios goes off the boil, Tomic is there to take advantage.

It basically seems almost impossible for anyone else to win this market. I will address them quickly now.

The other players in this market are Thanasi Kokkinakis at 12, John Millman at 21, Alex De Minaur at 26, Jordan Thompson at 26, James Duckworth at 34, Sam Groth at 41, Marinko Matosevic at 51, Matthew Barton at 67, Andrew Whittington at 81 and Marc Polmans at 101.

Kokkinakis is an exciting young prospect. He's 20 years old and 6' 5" with easy power and very solid technique all round. His temperament is also calm and controlled. His career high was 69 in 2015 and it was generally expected at the time that he would make it into the top 50 soon enough and probably the top 30 before long.

This last year has seen him plagued with injury, however, most notably an ongoing shoulder injury which has seen him play only 1 match all of the 2016 tennis season against Elias at the Olympics which he lost 7-6 7-6. As a result he is currently unranked.

Regardless of talent, being unranked at the year start makes it nearly impossible to play enough main draw matches to win this market. Kyrgios is 13 and Tomic 26 meaning they will get direct access to every main draw event and will be seeded in majors. Combined with Kokkinakis' injury worries, I don't see him winning this market in 2017.

John Millman is a player who has been on and off the tour with injury but has found some decent form the last two seasons. He's 27 and at 6' 0" he lacks the natural height and power of Kyrgios and Tomic. He makes up for this with consistency and accuracy in his groundstrokes and, while limited technically, is solid all round and has a good temperament.

He has only ever been ranked as high at 60 in the world, however, and he isn't nearly as open to improvement as either Tomic or Kyrgios. I can't really see him breaking the top 50, and the only way I see him beating Tomic is by both the top two market leaders having an incredibly poor season.

After this point it gets a little silly. Alex De Minaur is the next player in this market at 26 and he's ranked 354 in the world. He has basically no chance of winning.

While I would expect Kyrgios to win, I am happier opposing the rest of the field as I see no-one else with a realistic or reasonable chance of winning this market.

I am suggesting a 20 stake on Kyrgios and a 10 stake on Tomic.
TennisPilot +2675.35
Stake: 10 3.75Paddy Power
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Posted 2 years ago


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