ATP 2017 Most Aces John Isner

Tennis - Season Special - 01 Nov 10:00

This is a 2 part tip on Ivo Karlovic to hit the most aces of any player in the 2017 tennis season, with a cover on John Isner.

The preview for this bet is long and so we will be splitting it across both tips. This is the second preview, and we suggest you read them in order.

This second tip will address a player who I think is being particularly over rated in this market: Milos Raonic.

I point out in the first preview that I am happy opposing the field and that the market odds suggests one of Raonic, Isner or Karlovic will win this market 97.5%, with Isner at 2.62, Raonic at 3.25 and Karlovic at 3.5. This suggests that Raonic has good chances, slightly less than Isner, slightly more than Karlovic.

To me this is absurd as Raonic is unlikely to win this market. He’s 6’ 4” so lacks the extreme height of Isner (6’ 10”) and Karlovic (6’ 11”). This doesn’t hurt his power, but it will hurt his ace count as it’s difficult to aim as accurately from 6/7 inches shorter.

He’s never hit the most aces in a season. Since turning pro, his record in reverse chronological order is as follows, starting with 2016: 4th 5th 2nd 2nd 2nd 6th 45th.

Over his last 3 years (2014-2016) he has hit 2,773 aces, played 2,498 service games and made 1.11 aces per game. Compare that to the stats from Isner and Karlovic in my other preview.

His total ace count usually sits around 700-800 at the end of the year with 2 of his 7 years as a pro seeing a total above 1,000.

These came in 2012 and 2014 and were 1,012 and 1,136 respectively. He came second both years, to Karlovic and Isner.

Importantly, he has changed his service style to include more body serves, probably hence his 4th and 5th over the last 2 years after three straight 2nds.

He hit only 0.96 aces per game in 2016 down from 1.14 in 2015 and 1.24 in 2014.

His average over the last 3 years is 1.11 per game. Again, compare that to 1.38 for Isner and 1.53 for Karlovic.

He is fit at the end of 2016 and looked strong at the World Tour Finals but has recurring injury issues which could flare up at any point. This is true of all 3 market leaders.

He’s at a career high ranking of 3 and I imagine he will have a good season barring injury.

This is important as the only way Raonic wins this market is if he has an excellent season and runs deep in several fast tournaments like Wimbledon.

Having said that, last year was his best season to date and he played the most matches he has ever played in a season at 70, still only to come 5th and hit 886 aces.

All things considered, having him as the second favourite seems ridiculous and the clearest indicator that this bet is value.

I am suggesting a 20 stake on Karlovic at 3.5 and a 10 stake partial cover on Isner at 2.62.
TennisPilot +2284.95
Stake: 10 2.50Coral

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