ATP 2018 Most Aces Ivo Karlovic

Tennis - Season Bets - 01 Jan 10:00

I backed this last year at 3.5 and did a very long preview. Virtually all of that stands and is the foundation of this bet. I will not repeat so if you're interested have a read: http://www.bettingkingdom.co.uk/betting-tips/tennis/Season-Special/ATP-2017-Most-Aces-Ivo-Karlovic/75267.

Here I will address two points specific to this year. First, Ivo was awful last year and came 4th in aces count. At 38 isn't he likely to continue declining? Second, Ivo ended his year with an injury. Other bookies have this around 4.5 so presumably this drift has something to do with his injury.

Ivo was awful last year. First round exit in 10 of his 20 events says it all. That happens, he's done it several times in the past. It's the main risk with backing Ivo. He is not really a consistent player and has struggled with injury for a long time. But in terms of game style he is not someone who needs to be at peak fitness. His entire game is based on net rushing on return followed by unreturable serves.


To be honest, the fact he's still top 5 in ace count is telling. Most players would not be top 100 with that few wins over a year. So I don't think it's a huge issue or signals anything significant. He may continue to decline with age or he may have a good year like he did in 2016 which would make odds of 10 look ridiculous.

To the second point. Injury initially put me off backing Ivo especially at 4.5. But I checked again today and not only had he had drifted to 10, he also posted a coincidentally apt tweet:

"At 38 years old I still average most aces per match. Even though 2017 was very challenging year for me I’m super excited about being able to compete in a sport I truly love. All of you who are still with me I truly appreciate you."

So he is clearly motivated for 2018 and probably fit too given he is posting pictures of training. Given his style is not very physical I feel he is one of few who could realistically compete at near his best level at the age of 38. Near his best would make this bet 1.8 in my opinion. Maybe evens. Even if he doesn't this will likely come close as it did this year.

Key indicator that this is value: Raonic, Muller and Querrey are shorter than Ivo at 6.5, 6.5 and 7.5. That is silly. One of Isner and Ivo will win this market near 100% so long as one or both is fit. It comes with their uniquely one dimensional, serve orientated game style. Lots of long matches, lots of close matches. Raonic could win twice as many matches as Ivo and not hit as many aces. Last year Isner won it comfortably, second wasn't even close. On 4 of the last 10 years Ivo has won this market, usually comfortably. Raonic, Muller and Querrey have never hit the most aces in a season.

Hard to price but I was half tempted at 4.5 so this is double stakes. If he's healthy through the year it's 2.5 to 3 at most.
TennisPilot +2675.35
Stake: 20 6.00Paddy Power
Best Odds

Posted 8 months ago

6.00
Bets Placed
Woland

Woland (+7,418.03) bet £7.00 on this tip.

8.00
Dutch

Dutch (+272.05) bet £5.00 on this tip.

8.00
Dave

Dave (+2,430.01) bet £10.00 on this tip.

7.50
Woland

Woland (+7,418.03) bet £8.00 on this tip.

8.00
jugger

jugger (+3,089.72) bet £10.00 on this tip.

7.50
Simon

Simon (+14,356.28) bet £0.44 on this tip.

8.00
Row Z

Row Z (+2,230.74) bet £10.50 on this tip.

10.00
Row Z

Row Z (+2,230.74) bet £12.00 on this tip.

7.50
SlugForAButt

SlugForAButt (+1,246.83) bet £20.00 on this tip.

6.00

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