Joao Sousa v Paolo Lorenzi

Tennis - Paris Masters - 31 Oct 11:00

This is a pretty horrible match up given both players are in poor form but I have to trust my prices otherwise there is no point sticking to my system. I had Lorenzi (#41) much shorter at odds of 2.38 - 2.5.

These two met in the US Open and Lorenzi came out on top winning in 4 sets. They also met on clay in Kitzbuhel and whilst Sousa came through in 3 sets Lorenzi was the 1.9 favourite that day.

Sousa has the far superior record indoors but I've watched him loads of times on this surface and it's his ability to target an opponents weakness that has given him so much success. He doesn't have the power to hit through players so against opponents with a weak backhand he just hits 80% of his ground strokes to that side. But up against an opponent who is solid off both wings and suddenly Sousa has to work really hard to win points.

He's lost to some terrible indoor hard courts opponents in his time, Lajovic and Gimeno Traver spring to mind. He's also been in poor form for much of the season. Prior to his 2 wins in qualifying he'd lost 11 of his last 14 matches.

Whilst this clearly isn't a good surface for Lorenzi he has won his 1st Round match in 6 of his last 9 ATP Tour events indoors including here in Paris 12 months ago when he beat Paire.

Lorenzi is on a poor losing streak of 6 1st Round exits in a row but he's shown some fight with 3 of those matches going close to 3 hours which suggests to me he's not just given up on the season. If he brings his normal brick wall style game to the court tomorrow then Sousa is going to have to work hard to win this match.

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BKTennis +1388.60
Stake: 10 3.02Marathonbet
Best Odds

Posted 12 months ago

Bets Placed

Simon (+14,974.17) bet £10.00 on this tip.


Woland (+7,365.78) bet £10.00 on this tip.


CD (+4,584.71) bet £10.00 on this tip.


Dave (+2,523.89) bet £20.00 on this tip.


Wieslaw (+1,292.92) bet £10.00 on this tip.


Punting4Paradise (+3,744.79) bet £10.00 on this tip.


SlugForAButt (+1,616.08) bet £10.00 on this tip.


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