Dusan Lajovic vs John Isner Set 1 Total Games: Over 10.5

Tennis - Davis Cup - 02 Feb 15:30

Isner is priced 1.66 and when priced 1.5 to 1.99 he has gone past 5-5 in 33 of his last 50 matches implying odds of 1.5. The H2H as seen 7 tiebreaks in 11 sets with both of the clay matches seeing a first set tiebreak implying odds of 1.57 on a tiebreak (about 1.4 on over 10.5 games).

Some may argue the fact it is clay is a negative. Firstly, this is indoor clay which will likely be quicker and avoids any interference from the weather. More importantly, Isner gone past 5-5 in 34 of his last 50 on clay. In fact, he plays more tiebreaks per set on clay (0.48) than both indoor (0.45) and outdoor hard court (0.34) and exactly the same number as grass. The main factor is that he seriously struggles to break on clay at just 9% compared to 12% on outdoor hard.




Lajovic looked to be finding his form in a 5 set loss to Schwartzman at the Australian Open having started the year poorly. He is playing in front of a home crowd and has always been competitive with Isner on clay. In 2016 he won their meeting in Buenos Aires 7-6(10) 4-6 7-6(6) priced almost identically.

Davis Cup can throw up odd results but Isner has still played 50% first set tiebreaks over his 24 matches in the competition. My price would be 1.66 to 1.8 with the tiebreak roughly 2.
TennisPilot +2540.35
Stake: 20 2.20Betfred
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Posted 4 months ago

2.20
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