Tennys Sandgren v Reilly Opelka Set 1 Total Games

Tennis - Charlottesville Challenger - 30 Oct 22:30

Opelka is very similar to Isner. Opelka is actually taller at 6' 11" making him the tallest player on tour. He's held 91% and broken 11% in his time on tour which isn't far off Isner's one year stats (93/9) and is actually identical to his lifetime stats. Isner has played 0.41 tiebreaks per set over the last year, Opelka 0.37.

Opelka has gone past 5-5 in 49% of 47 first sets priced 1.5 to 3. He's been especially consistent recently with 10 of his last 15 first sets going back to July seeing this bet land. I'm taking over 10.5 here simply because stats make it a better bet than the tiebreak at 3.4. Not sure why but they both get a disproportionate number of 7-5s. It may simply be variance but in terms of temperament I don't trust either to be professional late on in the set and we're only getting 1.17 on two holds from 5-5 which is break even at most in my opinion.

Sandgren isn't great for tiebreaks (about average) but he's slight favourite for this match and a good server holding 84% on indoor hard over the last year (average 80%). The one H2H meeting was 6-4 6-7(7) 7-6(5) to Sandgren on clay, and this is fast, indoor American hard court between two home players, in an event that Opelka, the underdog, won last year.

It seems clear these two are a good match up for tiebreaks and conditions/context are likely to mean both it is very competitive and serve orientated. My price would have been 2.2 which would make this a 32% ROI bet. Over 22.5 games at 1.83 with Bet365 is a good alternative if you can't get this price.
TennisPilot +3400.35
Stake: 20 2.70SportPesa
Best Odds

Posted 12 months ago

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