Laurynas Grigelis v Lukas Lacko

Tennis - Brescia Challenger - 19 Nov 15:30

Grigelis has been good to back this year with an ROI of 25%. His lifetime ROI is 26% priced 3+ and he's won 4 of his 10 at that price range this year for a 72% ROI. He has a 47% ROI on carpet overall and has been on superb form this week with wins at 2.6 and 5 as well as his fairly comfortable 7-6 6-1 win over Galovic priced 1.91 last round.

Brescia is an unusual tournament in terms of playing conditions (very fast carpet) and Grigelis clearly enjoys it having won 8 of his last 9 matches at the event despite being priced as the underdog in 6, and being over 3 twice (won both). He made the final last year losing 7-6(5) 4-6 6-7(8) to Vanni having had match points. I watched him last and this year and his level at this event is superb. Most notably he defeated Seppi priced 5 earlier this week as well as Leonardo Mayer last year priced 4.

Lacko has a -11% ROI lifetime on carpet and at Brescia has lost priced 1.5 and 1.4 the last two years. Last year he lost to eventual champion Vanni, who Grigelis then held match points against in the final, to give an idea of how close this could be if form lines hold up.

Lacko has been solid this week but not spectacular and leads the H2H 2-0, though neither was on carpet. Lacko has also been solid priced short recently. Despite the fact that there are no major statistical reasons to oppose Lacko that doesn't bother me as Grigelis is the major focus of this bet and having watched both this week I very much expect a close match.

The odds have also drifted out the 3.92 here with most 3.4 or lower. Several exchanges have 3.75+ if you don't get these odds. I suggest double stakes at anything 3.75 or bigger.

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TennisPilot +3400.35
Stake: 20 3.92Marathonbet
Best Odds

Posted 11 months ago

Bets Placed

CD (+4,584.71) bet £20.00 on this tip.


Simon (+15,121.17) bet £20.00 on this tip.

Andy Ward

Andy Ward (+2,717.88) bet £20.00 on this tip.

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Woland (+7,365.78) bet £20.00 on this tip.


Dutch (+358.65) bet £5.00 on this tip.


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