Lukas Lacko v Jozef Kovalik Set 1 Total Games: Over 12.5

Tennis - Bratislava Challenger - 07 Nov 15:30

Not as obvious a spot as Janowicz but we're getting nearly half a point higher. Both are better servers than returners with hold/break stats of 85/22 and 84/5 respectively over the last year on indoor hard.

Unsurprisingly Lacko is the favourite as he has the much better indoor hard stats but Kovalik has a great record of at least making it to tiebreaks in this event. In 4 of his last 5 he has made it to a first set tiebreak and in fact 6 of his last 10 sets at the event have been tiebreaks going back to 2012. Priced 2 to 3 indoors he has played 4 tiebreaks in 11 sets.

Lacko has played 6 tiebreaks in his last 20 sets at this event and isn't really ideal for tiebreaks showing how important the context of Bratislava is to this bet, as highlighted in Gombos/Janowicz.

These are two home players in decent form at a very fast venue where they are both familiar. That should be a good spot for tiebreaks and I would say 3.5 is a fair price so at 4.5 it's double stakes.
TennisPilot +3338.35
Stake: 20 3.65
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Posted 11 months ago

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