Aus Open Mens: Djokovic E/W

Tennis - Aus Open - Mens Outright - 20 Jan 01:30

With a 9-1 win record currently, I must agree with the bookies that Roger is the right favourite for this tournament. It's also true that Rafa should be the 2nd favourite with consistent wins this week.. The spaniard's last match was a superb 6-1 6-3 6-1 win over a tricky Dzumhur. Having said these, it would seem Djokovic looks the best value on the outright market at the moment.
Here are my reasons:
First of all, Aus Open is Novak's favourite grandslam without a doubt where he has bagged 6 titles, the most by anyone in the open era. Secondly, as it stands, he has a winning h2h record against both the favourites: Nadal and Federer. So the question is if he is fit enough to win this title.
After his early retirement against Berdych at Wimbledon last year, Novak resumed his tennis a week ago at the Kooyong Exhibition event where he beat Thiem 6-1 6-4. While that win is less important in relation to form, what is more noteworthy is his last round win over an in-form Monfils (won ATP Doha earlier this year). I was keen to see how well the Serbian adapted to the blistering hot conditions. He started poor losing the first set 6-4 but then surprisingly stormed back giving no break point opportunities in the next 2 sets and adapted very well to the conditions. That performance says Novak is close to being back in business. I see hurdles for him through Ramos and Chung/Zverev in the coming matches but, I also feel if he can continue playing like he did in the last round, he should be good enough to reach the semis where he will meet Roger, who could have a potential showdown with Del Potro, someone who has seriously troubled the Swiss beating him at the US Open and also taking him to deciding sets at both Shanghai and Basel last year.
And for Nadal, a meeting with Cilic looks inevitable with the Croatian looking very good against big serving Harrison in the last round. But then, he has to worry about a possible semi-final with the home favourite Nick Kyrgios which could prove a very tough match.
In summary, at this very moment, I feel Djokovic looks the best value market on the outright to reach at least the semi-finals. And if he can continue to believe in himself, the door could be wide open for the Serbian to capture his 7th crown at Melbourne.
Opting for Novak to win at AO 2018.
KrishTennis +396.17
Stake: 10 7.00BoyleSports
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