Grigor Dimitrov v David Goffin

Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals - 15 Nov 14:00

I nearly backed Goffin to win the group but when I checked oddschecker on Saturday only one bookmaker had priced it up and I forgot to check again. Nadal's knee injury was the main reason for that and Goffin saw off the Spaniard on Monday evening to get an all important W on the board.

I made Dimitrov the favourite here but I wouldn't have Goffin any bigger than 2.4. So at current prices the value is with the Belgian in my opinion. There are some good stats to suggest this is correct.

Goffin has the slightly better record on indoor hard courts winning 60.6% of his matches compared to Dimitrov at 60.4%. Very very close.

In 2017 Goffin has won 72% of his matches with a 57-22 record. Let's not forget he had a nasty injury at Roland Garros and missed part of the season. Dimitrov is 45-19 this year, winning 70% of his matches.

In terms of profitability Goffin has been the better player to follow with a ROI of 8.7% in 2017 compared to Dimitrov at 1.9%.

Dimitrov does lead the H2H 4-1 but Goffin won their most recent meeting in Rotterdam, on this very surface back in February. Given this price is only slightly above my threshold I'm going to go half stakes here. It's been a very good season for me and I'm well ahead of my target, wouldn't want to ruin it by chucking in 3 or 4 losses this week.

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BKTennis +1382.85
Stake: 5 2.58Marathonbet
Best Odds

Posted 11 months ago

Bets Placed

Simon (+14,882.79) bet £5.00 on this tip.


Wieslaw (+1,313.52) bet £5.00 on this tip.

Daniel Bergman Chumacero Aguilera

Daniel Bergman Chumacero Aguilera (+164.10) bet £5.00 on this tip.


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