Dominic Thiem v Pablo Carrena Busta

Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals - 15 Nov 20:00

Time to trust my prices and they are telling me 3.6 on Carrena Busta is an excellent value bet. A tricky match to price up given the dynamics of the situation in that Carrena Busta replaces the injured Nadal. It could see him come into this match in a relaxed frame of mind with nothing to lose. Alternatively he might feel the pressure making his debut in such a high profile event. It's anyones guess.

The facts are simply though. Both players are out of sorts and Thiem looks too short. He's 2-5 on the ATP Tour since the US Open. Once again v Dimitrov he found a way to lose the match. Having broken back in the final set he produced a simply shocking service game to hand Dimitrov the match.

It's worth reading the article by Dan Weston who talks about how Thiem struggles in the 2nd half of the season. Obviously partly to do with the switch away from clay courts but also the fact he burns himself out early in the season.


Carrena Busta has only won 1 match himself since reaching the semi finals of the US Open but his win % in the past 12 months is identical to Thiem at 62%.

Both have poor records on this surface with Thiem edging it, 48% - 46%. However Carrena Busta has shown an improvement away from clay. In the past 18 months he has a 8-5 (62%) winning record on indoor hard courts, Thiem is 9-10 (47%) and that's a big reason why these odds look so generous.

The H2H favours Thiem leading 4-1 but 4 of those wins were on clay. I just feel given Thiem's recent struggles he's way too short in the betting here. I'm going to risk it and go DOUBLE STAKES. Marathonbet are offering these odds. Don't have an account? You really should. Better Odds = More profit and Marathonbet are more often than not top price. CLICK HERE to join.
BKTennis +1220.50
Stake: 20 3.64Marathonbet
Best Odds

Posted 1 month ago

3.64
Bets Placed
Simon

Simon (+13,830.35) bet £20.00 on this tip.

3.60
Wieslaw

Wieslaw (+1,457.19) bet £20.00 on this tip.

3.60
CD

CD (+4,026.40) bet £20.00 on this tip.

3.60
SlugForAButt

SlugForAButt (+1,061.32) bet £20.00 on this tip.

3.61
Daniel Bergman Chumacero Aguilera

Daniel Bergman Chumacero Aguilera (+213.70) bet £20.00 on this tip.

3.60
Punting4Paradise

Punting4Paradise (+2,204.37) bet £20.00 on this tip.

3.75
Graeme

Graeme (+379.10) bet £25.00 on this tip.

3.50
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