Gilles Muller vs. Pablo Cuevas Tiebreak in match: YES

Tennis - ATP Sydney - 12 Jan 00:00

A bit unfortunate with the last couple of bets. Jaziri was broken after reaching 3-3 in the first, so at least we only lost 10 overall, but surprisingly it was Isner who ruined our chances at the set 2 tiebreak being broken after going 0-40 down at 2-3! No luck with the Barton/Muller tiebreak either with the young Aussie seemingly coming out cold and losing the set with a double break. A winner on Thiem/Elias 3 sets rectified most of the damage and hopefully we can get into the green for January with a winner from this bet.

Gilles Muller is a 6' 4" leftie with a hugely effective serve winning 80.6% of first serve points over the last 12 months on hard courts and holding 85.7%. He's serve reliant breaking only 14.6% meaning he often plays long matches against tough opposition with 15 of his 25 matches priced 1.5 to 1.99 on hard court seeing a tiebreak.

Pablo Cuevas is primarily a clay court player but has improved his ability on hard courts dramatically over the last 12 months or so and is a far better baseliner than Muller. He's held 80% and broken 20% over the last 12 months on hard courts, tour average is 78%/22%, and played a tiebreak in 10 of his 18 hard court matches since the start of 2016. Given Muller has played a tiebreak in 60% of matches priced 1.5 to 1.99 it's likely that he will play at least as many against Cuevas, if not more given he is slightly above average in terms of service reliance on hard courts. That would suggest a price of roughly 1.66 was correct. Two of the three other bookies' prices on this market are 1.66 with another at 1.8, which is worth a 10 stake if you can't bet with Coral.

In Sydney the conditions are fast making it perhaps even more likely. Muller has played a tiebreak in 7 of his 10 matches at the event and another match saw a set go to 7-5. Cuevas hadn't played this event since 2010 when he returned in 2015 with a much improved hard court game. He has played 5 matches at this event since with 2 seeing a tiebreak - against Dimitrov priced at 5 and Almagro priced at 2 - and another match was 7-5 7-5 suggesting it was unlucky not to see this bet land. On a side note, dealing with the heat in Australia is key so it's useful that Cuevas is from Uruguay, a hot South American country.

These two have also played once before and it was 3-6 7-6 6-4 to Cuevas, albeit on grass. I was actually courtside on the day and it was a really tight match despite being on Muller's best surface, so I imagine Cuevas will make it close again when they meet in Sydney.

No reason to have this over 1.66 all things considered so it's an easy double stakes bet.

TennisPilot +2284.95
Stake: 20 1.80Coral
Bets Placed

Woland (+3,435.49) bet £12.50 on this tip.


SW (+10,164.29) bet £20.00 on this tip.


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