Gilles Muller vs. Matthew Barton Set 1 Tiebreak: YES

Tennis - ATP Sydney - 11 Jan 01:00

Two big servers meet on the fast hard courts of Sydney and I feel these is clear value in the first set tiebreak.

Gilles Muller is 6' 4" with a very strong serve winning 81.3% of first serve points over the last year and holding 89% compared to the tour averages of 69% and 78%. He's a fairly serve reliant player breaking only 13% over the same time frame as opposed to a tour average of 22% meaning he frequently gets into long sets against decent serving opponents.

Matthew Barton is the home player and seems to play his best tennis in Australia winning his last match against Kyle Edmund 7-6 7-6. At 6' 3" his serve is also a big weapon with Barton winning 78% of first serve points over the last year. He played Isner at Wimbledon and lost 7-6 7-6 7-6 which shows he can hold his own against the serve reliant top 50 players. Plus he's played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 10 matches and only broken 20% over the last year suggesting he too is somewhat serve reliant.

I would have said 2.5 to 3 was about right so at 3.5 it's clear value.
TennisPilot +2284.95
Stake: 20 3.50Coral
Bets Placed

Woland (+3,435.49) bet £20.00 on this tip.


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