ATP Sydney Winner Alexandr Dolgopolov

Tennis - ATP Sydney - 09 Jan 01:00

We tipped this for private subscribers last night. The price has held okay so far so I thought I would share on BK too.



Dolgopolov is one of the most unconventional players on tour and often in the limelight for shady activity such as his dodgy loss to Monteiro last year. I wouldn't let any of that fool you. When in form he is excellent and understands how to win tournaments. He defeated Nishikori in the final of Buenos Aires last year when priced as a 4 to 1 underdog.

Dolgopolov is slight favourite for the tournament but it is very open. Schwartzman (12), Medvedev (13), Muller (13), Simon (13), Mannarino (13), Ramos (15), Verdasco (15), Dzumhur (15) and Fognini (17) are all within 6 points. The draw is Fognini, Mannarino, Simon/Medvedev and finally Schwartzman/Muller. A few factors make me think Dolgopolov should be clear favourite.

Firstly, stats suggest this is a good spot to back Dolgopolov. His one year hard court stats are strong with a 65% win rate and 18% ROI. When priced as the favourite he won 17 of 20 on hard courts last year for a 37% ROI, and he is likely to be favourite for every match this week. He has a strong 36-25 record in Australia for a 18% ROI and has won 79% of matches when priced as favourite. In Sydney he has generally performed well, with 3 of his 4 losses coming as underdog. He lost in 3 to eventual champion Muller last year (won 50% of points) and also lost in 3 to Dimitrov the year before. Dolgopolov has won 6 of 7 matches as favourite in Sydney.

Dolgopolov's recent form is strong. He defeated this tournament's second favourite Schwartzman 6-4 7-6 in Brisbane priced as slight underdog before losing 6-1 3-6 4-6 to Kyrgios playing good tennis in both matches. Then first round this week he defeated Troicki 6-3 6-7 7-5, a solid result given Troicki's form in Sydney is superb.

Fognini is the definition of mercurial in both his tennis and temperament. Verbally abusing an umpire in uncomfortably misogynistic language last year was his latest foray into main stream media and controversy. Fognini hasn't played a competitive match yet this year so it's hard to gauge his form, but a few stats suggest he shouldn't be winning this match. Dolgopolov has a 5-1 record over the Italian and has won all 4 of their hard court sets as well as 10 of their last 11 sets overall. Fognini also has a dire 8-19 record in Australia for a -24% ROI, though he has played well in Sydney. Given his high peak he is always a threat when on form but I am happy to take him on at the prices.

Mannarino was a player I considered outright but his lack of form in 2018 and 11-13 record in Australia for an awful -43% ROI put me off. The Frenchman has only ever won 1 match as underdog in Australia from 10 attempts which was a 5 set marathon against Johnson priced 2.1, so not exactly a big surprise. My feeling is the conditions aren't ideal for his game style. Nonetheless he is a tricky player and I wouldn't be surprised if he caused Dolgopolov problems.

Only Simon has shown better form than Dolgopolov in his superb run to win ATP Pune. It seems unlikely that Simon, now 33 years old, will maintain that form going into a new tournament, especially having not won a tournament since 2015. Moreover, Dolgopolov has the better 12 month record and a 3-1 record against the Frenchman winning their last 6 sets in a row.

Medvedev has yet to show much of interest this season after a disappointing end to 2017. He lost 5-7 6-4 6-4 to Matosevic priced 1.33 in his first match of the season and while his 6-2 6-3 win over Kohlschreiber last round looks impressive, the German was well below his best. I am still waiting for the Russian to be tested and also to prove he can handle the alien conditions of Australian heat. Opposing young talent is always a risk but one I am willing to take in this context given the prices.

Muller is defending champion with an excellent record in Sydney and Australia plus he defeated Dolgopolov 3-6 6-3 7-5 last year, though they won 50% of points each. However, Muller has been off with an elbow injury and looked average at best against Chung in Brisbane. He also has worse hard court stats than Dolgopolov over the last year and arguably is in the tougher half. When they're only 4 points apart, I would take a player clearly in good form over a player whose fitness is questionable any day of the week.

Schwartzman is one of my favourite players and had a superb 2017. However, he met Dolgopolov last week in Brisbane and lost in straight sets plus he has a poor 6-8 record in Australia for a -34% ROI. Their records are comparable and no doubt this would likely be a close match, but the faster conditions will suit Dolgo who also has a much more solid record in this part of the world.

Muller and Schwartzman are clearly the biggest threats to Dolgopolov so it's useful that they are on the same side. Before the final I would expect Dolgo to be favourite every match, hopefully in the final too if he plays well. He is 1.4 against Fognini, I would say 1.8 against Mannarino, 1.66 against Medvedev/Simon, then 1.9 in the final, adding up to 8 for worst case scenario opponents. I would have had him at 7 personally so 9 is a bet.
TennisPilot +2770.35
Stake: 10 9.00Bet365
Best Odds

Posted 9 months ago

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