ATP Quito Winner Victor Estrella Burgos each way

Tennis - ATP Quito - 05 Feb 16:00

Putting this up quickly as I doubt anyone else will go higher. I would probably only have Carreno-Busta, Monfils and perhaps Ramos shorter than Estrella, and they are all under 10.

Sometimes you are given a golden egg and whether or not it seems too good to be true the wins keep coming. This is very much that case so far and, while variance is a fickle mistress, Estella in Quito compared to the rest of the tour is without a doubt more dramatic than any other player and tournament. Most notably, go back and watch his matches against Bellucci in 2016, Karlovic in 2017 and Lorenzi in 2017. The level of belief and the quality of play under pressure is astounding.

Google 'Estrella interview Quito' and you'll find him talking about why he plays so well there. In essence, as a small player he benefits massively from Quito having the highest altitude on tour. It means that his natural pace is near perfect for the conditions both on serve and groundstrokes. He also deals with the thin air and overall unusual conditions far better than most and the crowd absolutely adore Estrella.

The draw is Bellucci, Melzer, Ramos, Monfils and finally Carreno-Busta. Estrella has already beaten Bellucci 3 times at this event all as the underdog so hopefully that opening round will prompt a revival of the Quito effect.

Ramos is the next major threat but again Estrella has beaten Ramos in Quito as the underdog before and from what I saw of that match I would expect Estrella to have great chances again.

Monfils and Carreno-Busta are question marks but again I don't see them as unbeatable at all so the question is how will Estrella play. History suggests he rises to the challenge and at the price I am happy taking a risk on history repeating itself. It's also worth noting that Estrella defeated Carreno Busta as a underdog in their only other meeting at extreme altitude in Medellin.

Tough one to price but all things considered I would definitely go sub 15. Maybe 13 which is what Bet365 have. Either way 21 is too big in my eyes.
TennisPilot +3395.35
Stake: 10 15.00William Hill
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