Ruben Bemelmans vs Viktor Galovic

Tennis - ATP Mouilleron-Le-Captif - 07 Nov 09:00

Surprised to see Galovic is still being under rated. He has a 75% ROI this year and has won 5 of his last 10 matches priced 3 to 6. At 6' 4" he has a big serve and an aggressive, powerful game. Heavy hitting, power based tactics generally work well for moderate underdogs because if the execution is reasonable they will have good chances against almost anyone.

History certainly suggests he is good in similar spots given he has a 13-16 record and 75% ROI lifetime priced 3 to 6. Main worry is his 21-22 record indoors -22% ROI. Having watched him several times indoors I can't say it makes much sense for him to be poor on this surface.

At 6' 4" his serve is very effective on this surface and power based tactics work well on every surface. His record on outdoor hard courts is 19-10 ROI 82% which also suggests he's just not shown much form indoors yet but likely will.

Bemelmans has been on good form and is clearly favourite for this match but a few things suggest 1.36 is too short. Firstly he has a -7% ROI lifetime priced sub 1.5 indoors and -5.5% ROI lifetime in general.

Their respective hold/break stats are also telling with Galovic on 107% compared to 104% for Bemelmans. The latter has clearly had the tougher opposition but a 4% advantage to the 3.75 underdog still seems wrong. Main advantage for Bemelmans is recent form but that may actually end up being a negative given Bemelmans has played twice as many matches in the last month and the end of season naturally favors the fresher player.

My price would be 3. Standard stake given potential surface issues and Bemelmans impressive recent form. You'll find these odds at William Hill. Don't have an account? Well CLICK HERE to join today. Use the promo code C30 and you could get £30 in free bets. T&Cs apply. 18+. New Customers Only.
TennisPilot +3338.35
Stake: 10 3.75William Hill
Best Odds

Posted 11 months ago

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