Australia v Samoa - Under 8.5 Points

Rugby league - World Cup - 17 Nov 09:30

Now we're into the quarter-finals I expect Australia to start dominating and showing us why they're the best national side on the planet & by a distance. For me it's the Australian defence that makes them so good. They just don't concede much when it matters, the last two games in which they've conceded more than 8.5 points were against England & New Zealand who're second & third best teams in the world.

In the three group games so far they've conceded 4 points against England, 6 against France & 0 against Lebanon. I'd have Samoa sandwiched somewhere in between that lot, better than Lebanon and France but no as good as England. Points wise I'd say that leads to Samoa scoring 4-6 points here, definitely no more.

Samoa haven't exactly been free scoring anyway, scoring 8 points against New Zealand, 18 against Tonga and just 14 against an abysmal Scotland side. That New Zealand game is a decent guide, 8 points against them would equate to 4 at most against Australia.

Regardless of what Samoa do this in about the Aussies anyway, into the knockout stages and with the best defence in the world, they will want to make a statement here and I wouldn't be totally surprised if the win to nil. They've named their best side here too having rested and swapped players around in the final two group games, you know they mean business now. I'd have happily taken a line of 6.5 or even maybe 4.5, odds of 1.79 for a line of 8.5 seems like really good value.
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Posted 11 months ago

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