Australia v France +56.5 Handicap

Rugby league - World Cup - 03 Nov 09:00

The second round of group games in the World Cup starts with Australia taking on France, the hosts are heavy favourites and have to give away 56 points on the handicap. I think the line is too high and I'm keen to take it on.

If Australia fielded their best side and went all out for 80 minutes I'd expect them to cover this handicap, however that won't be the case here. Australia have rung the changes here despite it being just the second group game. They give debuts to 4 players and in total make 6 positional changes.

They could win this second game the third game against Lebanon standing on their heads so the changes tell me they're already resting players and looking ahead to the latter stages. There's simply no need to go all out for 80 minutes here, even if they did the changes could lead to offensive and defence mistakes which only plays into our hands.

For this to be passed Australia need to win by 9 tries, if they miss 2 conversions which is more than possible they need to win by 10 tries. 9 tries works out at just under 1 try per 9 minutes which is a lot for a side with changes and not needing to go all out. I

f France score just 1 try which is more than possible the try per minute goes down further. France have scored at least 1 try in their last 10 competitive games, that includes two games against England when they scored 4 & 6 points. They scored 18 points in their opening game against Lebanon and field same side except for one change.

I see them scoring at least 1 try which is huge in the context of this line. All things considered I had the line at 50 points, 56 is a converted try in hand which gives us some nice value.

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TryMachine +1217.40
Stake: 10 1.85Black Type
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Posted 2 months ago

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