Roy Nelson vs Matt Mitrione Over 1.5 rounds

Other sports - Bellator 194: Nelson vs Mitrione 2 - 17 Feb 03:00

When you initially look at this fight you would expect it to not see the second round, as the previous meeting between these 2 ended in under 3 minutes. If you look at Matt Mitrione's last fights also, you wouldn't expect this to go past the first round, as 9 of his last 11 fights have ended in the first. However, there are 3 main reasons why I believe that this fight will go past 1.5 rounds.

1. Age: As fighters age, they tend to lose their explosiveness and speed. When these 2 step into the cage, Mitrione will be 39 and Nelson will be 41. Mitrione is someone who does rely on a lot of footwork and movement to create angles to strike.

I can see him not being as active as he once was (when he was in the UFC), therefore not having as many opportunity to land potential fight-ending blows. Roy Nelson was once a feared knockout artist, but as he has aged, he has lost a lot of his explosiveness, as well as cardio. This takes me onto my second point.

2. Roy Nelson: Roy Nelson is one of the most durable fighters on the planet. He has been finished twice in his career, once by a younger Andre Arlovski, and the other by the hard-hitting Mark Hunt.

If you look at some of the fighters that Roy has fought, and taken their hardest shots, it is quite staggering. Some of these include Miocic, Dos Santos, Overeem and Derrick Lewis. 12 of Roy's 14 losses are by decision.

What strikes me the most though is Roy's loss of explosiveness and speed in recent years. Since the start of 2015, Roy has had 7 fights, 6 of which went to a decision. The only other fight was against an off-TRT Bigfoot Silva (who has lost 11 fights by KO) and even that went past 1.5 rounds. Roy Nelson's last 8 fights have gone past 2:30 of the second round.

3. The Stakes: This fight is part of the first round of Bellator's 16 man heavyweight tournament to determine the new champ. Both of these fighters are coming in from the UFC and are amongst the favourites to win (Mitrione being the favourite).

However, the both of them have already had at least one fight in Bellator and haven't looked great. Nelson won his debut vs Javy Ayala, though it wasn't a great fight and Roy looked tentative to strike. Mitrione has had 3 fights in Bellator, winning all three.

But he was dropped in his debut, and was dropped by Fedor. Both fighters will not want to lose this, and they may look to play it safe. That would entail Mitrione using footwork and speed to avoid Roy's overhands and Roy using wrestling to take the fight to the floor and ride out a decision.
SJB MMA +8.30
Stake: 20 2.55Marathonbet
Best Odds

Posted 10 months ago

2.55
Bets Placed
Simon

Simon (+14,917.10) bet £20.00 on this tip.

2.69
SlugForAButt

SlugForAButt (+1,865.68) bet £20.00 on this tip.

2.60
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