Nedbank Golf Challenge Martin Kaymer

Golf - Nedbank Golf Challenge - 12 Nov 08:30

I love trying to pick a winner after 54 holes. It's totally different to picking value bets at the start of the week. Pressure suddenly becomes the key factor and who can handle it best in the final round. You can see the current state of play in the tweet below.

Scott Jamieson leads the way. I'd be very surprised if he keeps his cool and wins this tournament. His only win came in a 36 hole washout in South Africa. He had a great chance to win a 72 hole tournament when he led by 5 shots going into the final round of the Volvo Golf Champions but blew that. His form has been poor with 8 missed cuts in his last 13 events. T66 last week in Turkey. He got into contention after 2 rounds at Wentworth but shot 76 on Saturday.

Dubuisson is 1 back. He's played great here the past 2 seasons but just a couple of weeks ago he was in danger of losing his European Tour card until a superb final round at St.Andrews in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Injury has effected his season and he's had to withdraw 4 times. He looked a bit shaky when in the lead today and his putt on the last hole for birdie was weak. I think the pressure might get to him too.

Grace is only 3 back but I just feel he's really had to grind out a score this week and hasn't been at his best. The fact he ranks 28th in Greens in Regulation through 3 rounds supports that and I just feel he might struggle to keep bogeys off his card.

Martin Kaymer has had another disappointing season but we shouldn't forget just how good he's been already in his career and he's still only 32. 11 European Tour wins including 2 Major Championships. He's been World Number One and won this tournament back in 2012. His CV makes him the obvious pick.

However as I mention his form hasn't been that great and he's stumbled a few times when he's had the opportunity to win in recent seasons. But I think he's the value here at 8/1. He ranks 2nd in Greens in Regulation this week and the fact he's won on this golf course before is huge.

I just feel the way the course has been playing this week those players at -3 and -2 would have to go super low and whilst Molinari managed a 65 today it was with no pressure. Oosthuizen was the one I was keen on until he found the water at 17.

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BKGolf +3007.69
Stake: 10 8.50Betfred
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Posted 1 month ago

8.50
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17.00
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