Manchester City vs Wolves: Under 3.5
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25pts from a possible 27 and 5pts clear, times are good for Mancini's men. City have opened up a decent lead at the top of the table and this may be the year they win the title.
This weekend City host Wolves in what looks a one sided game but as we know games are not won on paper!
I can't write a preview on City without describing the annihilation of rivals United at Old Trafford last weekend.
The Blue half of Manchester was on cloud nine as Mancini's men dominated United winning the game 6-1. Many expected City to defend and play for a point but they didn't, they came at United and at times tore United's defence apart.
I must point out that United lost Evans at the start of the second half but were 1-0 down at the time. I don't think the result would have been 6-1 if it was 11 v 11 but still we can't fault City who were relentless on the day.
When focusing on the home form City are perfect and have the best record in the league. Played 4, won 4 with 13 scored and just 1 conceded so that's an average scoreline of 3-0 or 3-1 every 4th game which is very impressive.
The side has class all over the pitch and despite Tevez causing problems off the field, on it City remain one of best sides in the league.
Despite coming back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 last time out at home to Swansea, Wolves remain in 16th place.
The side has 8pts and only has a 2pt gap between them in 16th and Bolton in 18th. If they lose to City and results go against them they could be in the drop zone come Saturday evening.
McCarthy has had to deal with a lot of grief from the fans as the side has failed to kick on this season. Wolves started the year with back to back wins against Blackburn (2-1) and Fulham (2-0) but have since gone 7 games without a win losing 5 of those games.
It's quite an alarming drop for Wolves, 7 games without a win is a horrible run that goes back into August. Facing the league leaders is the worst team to be playing right now but at least they can go into this game with nothing to fear.
When looking at the away form, it's not great for Wolves. Played 4, 1 win, 1 defeat and 2 losses with the draw and the win both coming in August.
Since then Wolves have lost at Liverpool (2-1) and WBA (2-0) so the confidence can't be too high right now.
To make things worse a second string City side beat Wolves 5-2 midweek at Molineux in a Carling Cup tie, if the reserves can win 5-2 imagine what the first team will do this Saturday.
City will win this game, of that I'm 75% sure so getting 1.18 is no good to me. If you want to bet on City I won't put you off but at that price long term your going to get burnt.
The Asian market is set at a teasing -2, in City's 4 home wins the winning margin has been 3,2,3 and 4 goals.
Whilst Wolves when losing on the road have lost by 2 and 1. So the stats here aren't really conclusive.
I feel City may have a come down this weekend following their massive win last week, i think they will win but not by a huge margin as the bookies are predicting.
I can't take Wolves +2 AH but instead I'll chance the unders market which is set a huge 3.50 goals.
In only 2 of Wolves's last 10 games have been over 3.50 goals whilst City's last 10 home games have only seen more than 3.50 goals on 3 occasions.
I'm taking a gamble that Wolves most likely don't score and City don't get an early goal as that could open the flood gates.
I like to have stats on my side and think this is the best play for this game.