Sweden v Luxembourg +3 Asian Handicap

Football - World Cup Qualifying - 07 Oct 17:00

Best Odds: 1.94 @ bet365 >>> BET NOW

Once again, the bookies underestimate the mighty Luxembourg. They continue to do so, time and time again. They have improved massively over the years. 5 points from 8 qualifiers, with 7 goals and conceding 17 is absolutely no disgrace in a group with the likes of Sweden, France and The Netherlands.

They are level on points with Belarus and have scored 3 more goals and only conceded 1 more goal. Here is what I don't get, when Sweden hosted Belarus, the away side were 8.50 to win with bet365. Luxembourg are ahead of Belarus in the table but are odds of 41?????! Now, I don't expect them to win, but come on lads, how does that stack up?

In Luxembourg's last 30 matches, dating back to June 2014, they have lost by MORE than 3 goals in 3/30. Those losses were to Spain x 2 and The Netherlands. No disgrace there then.

This bet has won in 23/30 and seen money back in 4. That's an astounding strike rate of 76.76%, which implies odds of 1.30, yet we are getting odds against? With Sweden 3 points ahead of The Netherlands, and 1 point behind France, they don't really have too much of an incentive to try and score 4 or 5 here. Furthermore, Sweden have only beaten a team by more than 3 goals in 3 of their last 30 (dating back to June 2015)! Again, this bet would have won in 23/30, had you backed Sweden's opponents +3.

This is an absolute no brainer. The bookies keep underestimating this plucky side, which have some decent individuals playing in decent leagues across Europe. Only 11 of the 23 man squad actually play in Luxembourg, which I'm sure is a much lower number than say 10 years ago. They should be high in confidence after holding France to a 0-0 draw away from home last time out too.

Luxembourg have scored in 16 of their last 30 games too - BTTS is 3.50 with bet365, which I will be backing for sure.

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SDPW +986.82
Stake: 30 1.94Bet365
Best Odds

Posted 1 year ago

Bets Placed

Dave (+2,550.01) bet £30.00 on this tip.


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Nicholas O’Doherty

Nicholas O’Doherty (-42.15) bet £5.00 on this tip.


CD (+4,584.71) bet £30.00 on this tip.

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