Italy v Sweden Over 3 2nd Half Cards

Football - World Cup Qualifying - 13 Nov 19:45

2 quick tips for this game; the tie is nicely poised with Sweden leading 1-0 going into this 2nd leg. The focus is largely on Italy, with the fact they haven't failed to qualify for a World Cup in 60 years etc., so they question is how they handle the pressure.

I really don't think we will see the Italians run away with this, they are likely to be understandably nervy, as it's almost a lose/lose situation for them really. If they fail to qualify, all hell breaks loose. If they do qualify, there won't be wild celebrations, only relieved sighs that they managed to fall over the line. I can see a 1 or 2-0/2-1 here, with the game likely to be close deep into the 2nd half.

The card stats from the qualification games are largely irrelevant here, with this being a knockout tie and a unique game in itself. Italy accused Sweden of being too physical in the 1st leg, whereas Sweden accused Italy of trying to get Marcu Berg sent off after his early yellow. There were only 2 yellow cards in the 1st leg, and 23 fouls isn't a huge number, but Cuneyt Cakir was refereeing, one of the most incompetent high profile refs on the circuit, so take that with a pinch of salt.

The card line across the board is O/U 5.5, and I think vying for 4 in the second half at odds against is a better value play. There aren't really any numbers to back it up, but the state of the game suggests that it will be close throughout, and therefore for me this is the bet to be had.

The ref for this is Antonio Mateu Lahoz from Spain. Whilst I really dislike him, his stats at national team level are encouraging. He averages 4 per game across 9 competitive internationals with 3 red cards.

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SDPW +986.82
Stake: 10 2.15William Hill
Best Odds

Posted 11 months ago

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