Basel vs Man United

Football - UEFA Champions League - 22 Nov 19:45

Here's the situation; United sit top with 12 points, but aren't mathematically through yet. Basel and CSKA have 6 points each, and both have to play United still. CSKA play at home vs Benfica (0 points) tonight, which they're expected to win. This means Basel need at least 3 points. CSKA play United on the final day, when they will already have qualified top if they get a point, so will likely field a weakened side, meaning CSKA could take a point. This now means Basel need at least 4 points, potentially all 6, so they can't really just defend this game hoping for a draw.

On the other hand, United have Brighton at home at the weekend, so they will not feel the need to rest players today, wanting to get the group over and done with. Pogba and Ibra being back is perfect timing, with them both certainly wanting to prove a point now that they are fit. All this sets up nicely for United to win what will be an open game of football.

Stats-wise, it's a good bet too. United won 5 and drew 1 of their 6 games with Pogba fit. They've won 5 of 9 on the road, but 2 of those were a Mourinho masterclass 0-0 at Anfield, and a 1-0 loss to Chelsea, where the tactics were much different to how they will be today (playing for a point). Basel lost at home vs CSKA in their last CL game. In their weak Swiss league, they have already dropped 7 points at home, from just 8 games.

I think 19/20 for a United win is fantastic odds here, and we get that with Stan James.

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JSpooner +118.90
Stake: 20 1.95
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Posted 11 months ago

1.95
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