Ecuador v Argentina Over 3 2nd Half Cards

Football - South America World Cup Qualifying - 11 Oct 00:30

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I heard on Talksport this morning that Argentina were 1/4 to qualify for the World Cup....quite incredible when you consider they need a win to guarantee qualification. A draw may do if Colombia beat Peru, although there is no way that Argentina will want to leave it in other sides' hands. Ecuador play at high altitude, which makes it tough for may of the opposing teams. The only other side that play at such a height are Bolivia. Argentina's record at altitude (i.e. away at Bolivia and Ecuador) in World Cup Qualifying in this century is W2 D3 L4, and they have only won away at Ecuador 3 times in their history and twice since 1959. (Thanks to @MarkOHaire for those stats).

Whilst Ecuador are already out of the running, there's no way they will simply roll over and let Argentina have a free passage here. With the altitude a real issue for the away side, I expect this to be a tight affair and the quotes of 1.44 for an away win look horrific. The energy sapping conditions could see some tiredness in the second half, which can lead to lazy challenges and cards. If Argentina find themselves behind, they may lose their heads late on, a thoroughly embarrassing scenario awaits them if they fail to qualify with the squad they have. If they are leading going into the final 20 mins, expect time wasting tactics etc. This is a lose/lose scenario for Argentina in my opinion. If they fail to win, they are out and it will bring shame upon the whole squad. If they win, and qualify, people will simply slate them for making such hard work of it.

In Ecuador's 17 games in WCQ, their games have averaged 5.41 p/g, with Ecuador averaging 2.82 p/g. 8/17 of their games have seen 6 or more. Argentina's games have averaged the same amount, with Argentina accounting for 2.76 p/g, with 7/17 seeing 6 or more. Argentina have picked up 3 or more cards in 11/17 of their games so far, and I expect them to pick up a fair few here, especially in the 2nd half.

The ref for this game is Anderson Daronco from Brazil. The 36 year old is a tank by all accounts, and looks like he spends lots of time in the gym! Hopefully that means he takes no shit on the pitch. He is very inexperienced at this level though and this will be a huge test. He has only taken charge of 1 senior international game (5th October) in a drab 0-0 draw between bottom side Venezuela and 2nd place Uruguay. He showed 3 cards in that match. His other internationals were U20 games in the Sudamericano competition earlier this year. He showed 9,9, and 13 cards in those games with a red in all!

I expected this to be odds on, happy to go double stakes at these odds in what looks a really close game with lots at stake for the away side.

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Posted 2 months ago

2.25
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