Spal v Sassuolo Over 4 Cards

Football - Serie A - 22 Oct 14:00

Odds: 1.7 @ bet365 >>> BET NOW

This line is simply too low, given the fact we have money back if it finishes on 4. This is effectively a free swing to me, as I cannot see this finishing on less than 4. This game sees 18th host 19th, in a game that both sides will be looking to pick up maximum points. Both teams have identical records of W1 D2 L5, and both have shipped 14 or more goals.

Although Spal's games only average 3.75 per game this season, 6/8 have seen at least 4. They also still have the 4th highest yellow card count in the league so far, and pick up on average 2.13 cards per game. They have picked up 2 or more in 7/8 games. Sassuolo's games average 4 p/g, with 4/8 seeing 4 or more. Sass also average 2.13 cards per game and have picked up 2 or more in 5/8, but have picked up at least 1 in every game.

The ref for this game is Michael Fabbri. He has shown 18 cards in 4 games (2 x reds) this season at an average of 4.5 p/g, with 2/4 seeing over 4. It is worth noting that the 2 games that saw 3 or less were 3-0 and 4-0 wins, so no surprise the totals were low. Last season he averaged 4.38 cards per game and showed 4 or more in 11/16 games, a strike rate of 69% and implied odds of 1.45.

I can see why, on the surface, this line has come about. When you look at the previous games of both teams, they haven't been littered with cards and the ref isn't prolific. However, both sides have picked up cards on a consistent basis as Spal have picked up 57% of the total cards in their 8 games, and Sassuolo 53%. When you factor in the state of play at the bottom of the table, I really can't see us seeing less than 4 here. Over 4.5 is 1.78 at 888 and 1.75 at WHill. We get a marginally shorter price here but with much more security.

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Posted 1 year ago

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