Spal v Sassuolo Over 4 Cards

Football - Serie A - 22 Oct 14:00

Odds: 1.7 @ bet365 >>> BET NOW

This line is simply too low, given the fact we have money back if it finishes on 4. This is effectively a free swing to me, as I cannot see this finishing on less than 4. This game sees 18th host 19th, in a game that both sides will be looking to pick up maximum points. Both teams have identical records of W1 D2 L5, and both have shipped 14 or more goals.

Although Spal's games only average 3.75 per game this season, 6/8 have seen at least 4. They also still have the 4th highest yellow card count in the league so far, and pick up on average 2.13 cards per game. They have picked up 2 or more in 7/8 games. Sassuolo's games average 4 p/g, with 4/8 seeing 4 or more. Sass also average 2.13 cards per game and have picked up 2 or more in 5/8, but have picked up at least 1 in every game.

The ref for this game is Michael Fabbri. He has shown 18 cards in 4 games (2 x reds) this season at an average of 4.5 p/g, with 2/4 seeing over 4. It is worth noting that the 2 games that saw 3 or less were 3-0 and 4-0 wins, so no surprise the totals were low. Last season he averaged 4.38 cards per game and showed 4 or more in 11/16 games, a strike rate of 69% and implied odds of 1.45.

I can see why, on the surface, this line has come about. When you look at the previous games of both teams, they haven't been littered with cards and the ref isn't prolific. However, both sides have picked up cards on a consistent basis as Spal have picked up 57% of the total cards in their 8 games, and Sassuolo 53%. When you factor in the state of play at the bottom of the table, I really can't see us seeing less than 4 here. Over 4.5 is 1.78 at 888 and 1.75 at WHill. We get a marginally shorter price here but with much more security.

bet365 are offering these odds. Don't have an account? CLICK HERE to join today. We've used them for over 13,000 tips. Well clear of the next most used bookie. 18+
SDPW +1225.95
Stake: 20 1.70Bet365
Best Odds

Posted 2 months ago

1.70
Bets Placed
Simon

Simon (+13,705.93) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.70
Graeme

Graeme (+379.10) bet £25.00 on this tip.

1.70
CD

CD (+3,979.17) bet £30.00 on this tip.

1.70
Dave

Dave (+1,205.36) bet £100.00 on this tip.

1.70
Woland

Woland (+4,338.75) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.70
Wieslaw

Wieslaw (+1,030.43) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.70
Punting4Paradise

Punting4Paradise (+2,017.02) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.70
Johnstone

Johnstone (-35.60) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.70

Related Blog Posts

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new bet365 Customers

by Admin on 14 Dec 2017 in category: Free Bets


bet365 have a fresh sign up bonus for new customers which allows punters to get up to £100 in bet credits when you register.

BK Accumulator: 24/1 Wednesday Treble

by BKFootball on 13 Dec 2017 in category: Daily Accumulator


3 profitable tipsters, 1 pick each. Combined they give us a Premier League treble of well over 20/1.

Mr Green - New Bookie Added £10 Free Bet

by Admin on 08 Dec 2017 in category: Tipster News


I've added a new bookmaker to the BK list. Mr Green. This will give punters and tipsters more opportunity to get bets on that they may have struggled to with Unibet/888sport. Read on for details of the £10 Free Bet.

December Tipster Cup 1st Round Draw

by Admin on 01 Dec 2017 in category: Tipster News


Well done to the 16 tipsters who have qualified for this months Tipster Cup. Defending champion DRS is definitely the one to beat.

November Tipster Prizes

by Admin on 01 Dec 2017 in category: Tipster News


Well done to all the tipsters who won a prize in November. A special congraluation to DRS who won £275. The biggest monthly payout for some time on BK.

Bet Bright New 100% Bonus up to £100

by Admin on 13 Nov 2017 in category: Free Bets


Bet Bright have changed their welcome bonus for new customers who can now get 100% on your first deposit up to £100.

SportPesa £10 Free Bet Offer

by Admin on 19 Oct 2017 in category: Bookmaker News


SportPesa are the newest bookmaker to be added to Betting Kingdom. New customers who sign up today can claim a £10 free bet. Please use the links on our site. T&Cs apply. 18+
Help Support Betting Kingdom and keep tips free by opening some new bookmaker accounts today. Thank You