Empoli v Palermo Red Card in Match

Football - Serie A - 07 Jan 17:00

Super quick here to meet the deadline. Backing there to be a red card in the game between Empoli and Palermo at odds of 3.75 with William Hill.

These look very good odds, as low as 2.95 in some places. These two sides are scrapping it out near the bottom in 17th and 18th place respectively. Between them they've only won 5/36 games this season. Massive game for both sides here.

Empoli have the 2nd worst disciplinary record in Serie A, having picked up 58 cards in 18 games - an average of 3.22 cards per game. They have only picked up 2 reds, but this bet would have won in 6/18 of their games, which suggests odds of 3.00.

Palermo have the 4th worst record, having picked up 55 cards in their 18 - an average of 3.06 cards per game. They have picked up 4 red cards and this bet would have landed in 5/18, which suggests odds of 3.60.

Put it together and we get combined expected odds of 3.30 for a red here, not taking into account the importance of this game.

The ref for this one is Paolo Valeri. He averages a crazy 7.25 cards per game across his 8 Serie A games this season. He has shown 4 reds and this has won in 3/8, a strike rate of 38%, which implies odds of 2.63 for him to get the red out.

The card line for this game is O6.5 and at prices below evens. So the bookies are expecting there to be 7+ cards in this one, therefore I feel the red card angle offers some great value. 3.75 is too big, I'd have it more around the 3.00 mark.

Sorry for the short write up, thought this kicked off at 6, not 5!
SDPW +1025.55
Stake: 10 3.75William Hill
Bets Placed
Craig

Craig (+260.30) bet £10.00 on this tip.

3.75
Chris Tyler

Chris Tyler (-51.05) bet £10.00 on this tip.

3.75
Simon

Simon (+13,668.63) bet £10.00 on this tip.

3.75
HunterUk

HunterUk (+2,832.68) bet £10.00 on this tip.

3.75

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