Watford v Tottenham Over 4 Cards

Football - Premier League - 01 Jan 13:30

Looking to start off 2017 with a bang. I’m backing there to be Over 4 Cards (refunded if finishes on 4) in the game between Watford and Spurs at odds of 1.90 with bet365. So much to like about cards in this game, and a well-justified max stake here.

There are lots of different angles here. Taking on the higher card lines at attractive prices are justifiable, so is backing team cards. I’m going for the ‘safest’ value option, due to a slight (and it’s only very slight) concern about the referee, but check the stats and back what you like, as I think this could finish on about 6 or 7 cards this afternoon.

5th placed Spurs visit 12th placed Watford in an all London affair here, which will hopefully add a little bit of spice on New Years Day. The home side are out of form, but have only lost 3 times at home (2 of these were to Chelsea and Arsenal, which is fair enough), yet they have bagged in 8/9 home games.

Spurs have won 5 of their last 6, including an excellent 4-1 win away at Southampton last time out. I expect a competitive game here with the away side triumphing 2/3-1, but I don’t like the 8/13 available for Spurs here, as that’s too short IMO.

Watford’s 18 games have seen 87 cards – an average of 4.83 cards per game. 13/18 of their games have seen 4 or more cards, a strike rate of 72%. Every game this season involving Watford has seen at least 3 cards.

Watford are one of the dirtiest teams in the league this season, picking up 49 cards in 18 games so far, an average of 2.72 per game. They have picked up 2 or more cards in 15/18 of their matches, a strike rate of 83%.

Spurs games have averaged 4.89 cards per game this season, with 12/18 seeing at least 4 cards – a strike rate of 67%.

Spurs have accounted for 36 of these cards – an average of 2 per game, with them picking up at least 2 in 11/18 of their matches (61%).

Away from home, they have picked up 22 cards in 9 games – an increased average of 2.44 p/g and 2 or more in 6/9 (67%). O1.5 Spurs cards is 1.80 with bet365.

They have accounted for almost 60% of the cards when they have played away from home, which is an encouraging stat considering they play a dirty side in Watford.

This fixture last season saw 8 cards, including a red in a 1-2 away victory. Potential déjà vu here this afternoon?

The only slight concern is the referee. Michael Oliver gets the whistle here and he has shown 48 cards in 15 PL games this term – an average of 3.20 p/g. He has shown 4+ in 6/15 of his games – a strike rate of 40%. Not compelling stats, but I think his hand will be forced to his pocket a few times today.

Both teams have aggressive players. Britos, Holebas, Amrabat, Behrami, Guedioura and Capoue are no strangers to a card, whereas the likes of Alli, Rose, Dier and Dembele like to get physical too.

I’m expecting a good game here. Many people like BTTS here, with good reason and I feel this should make for a competitive game with cards on the agenda.
SDPW +1025.55
Stake: 30 1.90Bet365
Bets Placed

Simon (+13,668.63) bet £30.00 on this tip.


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