Tottenham Over 2.5 Cards v Chelsea

Football - Premier League - 04 Jan 20:00

Big game the Premier League tonight as Spurs host Chelsea in what threatens to be an entertaining encounter. I'm backing Spurs to pick up Over 2.5 Cards at 1.90 with bet365.

Price is probably about in the right ballpark here. Skybet got 1.83 whereas 888sport are in the mid 1.7s.

The rivalry between these two clubs has increased over the years, probably as Spurs have started to identify themselves as serious top 4 challengers. There's no doubt they are an excellent team with a young squad, however I don't feel them capable of mounting a serious title challenge yet. They lack just one absolute world class player.

Last year was a complete anomaly as we all know, and was probably their best chance at the title. Now the likes of City, Chelsea, United and Liverpool seem to have found some sort of stability, it's unlikely to see all four of these teams struggle in the same year, like what happened last year. The fact they still couldn't win the league tells me that they just aren't ready yet. Not saying they won't be however!

Anyway, this will be a hotly contested game. Spurs players are liking this to as big a game as the Derby with Arsenal, so that tells you all you need to know. Who can forget when utter chaos that descended in the 2-2 draw last season. No doubt that game still hurts the Spurs players as almost all were involved that day.

Spurs have picked up 36 cards in 19 games - an average of 1.89 per game. They have picked up 3 or more in 7/19 - a strike rate of 37%. Doesn't look great on first viewing, but you've got to remember that they have had some easy wins this year, like the Watford game last time out when you're unlikely to pick up cards by being so dominant.

In a Derby type fixture like this one, the H2H bears more significance than usual in my eyes. Spurs have covered this line in 6 of the last 10 meetings, and picked up 35 cards in total - an average of 3.5 per game. This suggests that based on recent meetings, Spurs should around the 1.67 mark to pick up 3 or more cards.

I'm not overly worried about them being the home team either. Both sides are priced up at almost identical odds. Chelsea's form and quality is negated by Spurs home advantage, meaning this game should be very balanced. I don't think one team will outshine the other, and it will be very even. Or at least it should!

I can see this game being tight throughout, and could be a defining moment in both teams seasons. If Chelsea win they break the record for consecutive wins, and if Spurs win, it may give them even more belief that they can go on and challenge Chelsea for the title.

The ref for this one is Martin Atkinson. He has shown 55 cards in 13 PL games - an average of 4.23 p/g. He has shown 7 or more cards in 5 games this term so can dish them out when required.

I've analysed match cards in depth, and the prices on offer are a bit short for me based on stats and historical meetings. The line of O5.5 at the evens mark isn't of any great interest to me, as my data tells me it should be around 2.25-2.50. I feel this offers a better angle. Just the standard stake though.
SDPW +877.20
Stake: 10 1.90Bet365
Bets Placed

HunterUk (+2,003.82) bet £10.00 on this tip.


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