Villarreal v Barcelona Over 2.5 Cards

Football - La Liga - 08 Jan 19:45

A very nice price here. I'm backing Barcelona to pick up Over 2.5 Cards in their game against Villarreal this evening. Odds of 2.05 with 888sport, double stake.

As many of you will know I'm always keen to back Barca for cards when they play away, as I feel the bookies underestimate them, even against the better teams. This game sees 5th place host 3rd, with only 5 points separating the teams. Barca are 6 points behind Real already, and they have both played the same number of games, despite Real playing and winning yesterday. They cannot really afford to drop many more points this season if they are going to win the league.

Villarreall have the 3rd best home record in the league. P8 W6 D1 L1 conceding just 5 goals in their 8 games. That defeat was a shock one too as Alaves ran out 0-2 winners. Having said that, Barca do have the best away record in the league having W6 D1 L1, but to price them up as 1.53 favs is just way too short for me. I still probably wouldn't back them at 1.80.

Barca come into this one after a bruising 2-1 defeat to Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey, and they play the return leg on Wednesday. I backed cards and a variation of this bet (both teams 30+) and they both won comfortably. Normally, Barca are sublime to watch, but when things don't go their own way, the toys come out the pram and they act like petulant, spoilt children. They were denied a stonewall penalty, and as elbow to the face of Umtiti from Aduriz went unnoticed by the officials, and this led to Barca picking up 4 cards before HT, three of these came within the same 30 second period for harassing the referee after turning down the penalty appeal. I cannot see Barca running away with this one at all, and expect it to be close throughout. No doubt this will lead to some similar antics from Barca players.

In their 8 away games, Barca have picked up 23 cards - an average of 2.88 p/g. This bet has won in 5/8 of their games - a strike rate of 63%. The 3 games where it didn't win were as follows; 5-1 win v Leganes (16th), 5-0 win v Gijon (18th), 3-0 win v Osasuna (20th). As you can see, these were dominant victories against 3 of the worst sides in the league. Therefore its not surprising they didn't rack up the cards in these fixtures.

In their last 10 league meetings with Villarreal there have been 57 cards - an average of 5.7 cards per game. At Villarreal, this rises to 6.60 cards per game. Barca have picked up 27 cards in these 10 games - an average of 2.7 cards per game, with this bet winning in 5/10. At Villarreal this average rises to 3 p/g and has won in 3 of the last 5, a strike rate of 60%.

The ref for this game is Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva. He has shown 55 cards in 9 La Liga matches this term - an average of 6.11 cards per game. He has shown 6 or more cards in 6/9 of these - a strike rate of 67%.

The same bet is 1.62 with Skybet. Probably a bit short, I'd have had it around 1.72. 30+ booking points both teams in 2.25, therefore 2.05 for O2.5 Barca cards looks the value play. Don't expect these odds to be around for long.
SDPW +877.20
Stake: 20 2.05888Sport
Bets Placed
Green

Green (+1,628.12) bet £20.00 on this tip.

2.05
SW

SW (+9,026.27) bet £40.00 on this tip.

2.05
Craig

Craig (+260.30) bet £20.00 on this tip.

2.05
Simon

Simon (+11,057.57) bet £20.00 on this tip.

2.05

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