Real Sociedad v Sevilla 60+ Booking Points

Football - La Liga - 07 Jan 19:45

A good looking bet in Spain tonight as Sevilla travel to Sociedad. I'm backing there to be 60 or more booking points (yellow = 10, red = 25) at odds of 1.91 with Skybet.

Looking forward to a good game here. Sevilla are more talented in terms of squad, but their away form, despite being better than it was last year, still isn't great and they generally struggle to grab wins on the road. W3 D3 L2 suggests they are a mixed bag away from home and they have conceded in 6/8 of their away games. Sociedad are having a great season and sit in 6th place. They have W5 D2 and L1 at home this year, and therefore Im expecting a competitive game here.

Sociedad's 16 games have seen a total of 94 cards - an average of 5.88 cards per game. This bet has won in 8/16 of their games - a strike rate of 50%. Sociedad themselves have picked up 40 cards - an average of 2.50 per game and have picked up 2 or more in 12/16 of their matches.

Sevilla's 16 games have seen 107 cards - an average of 6.69 per game. This bet has banked in 12/16 of their games - a strike rate of 75%. Sevilla have accounted for 47 of these, an average of 2.94 cards per game. They have picked up 2 or more in 14/16 and 3 or more in 9/16.

That's a combined win total of 20/36 - a strike rate of 56%. This probability implies odds of 1.79. This is as short as 1.72 with William Hill, and B365 and 888sport go 1.83 and 1.80 respectively. This is around the right price for me, therefore we are getting some value from Skybet.

The last 5 meetings have seen card totals of; 10, 3, 7, 8, 6 - an average of 6.8 p/g and won in 4 of the last 5.

The ref for this game is Juan Martinez Munuera. He has shown 63 cards in 11 games - an average of 5.73 cards per game. he has shown over this mark in 5/11 - a strike rate of 45%.

Happy to have £20 on this. Bit of value from Skybet and due to the perceived closeness of the match, I feel this should result in cards being shown here.
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SDPW +1025.55
Stake: 20 1.91Skybet
Bets Placed
Craig

Craig (+260.30) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.91
Simon

Simon (+13,668.63) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.91
HunterUk

HunterUk (+2,832.68) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.91

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