Villarreal v Real Sociedad Over 55 Booking Points

Football - Copa del Rey - 11 Jan 18:00

I’ve got 2 bets from the 2nd legs of the Copa del Rey tonight, and they both come from the game between Villarreal and Real Sociedad. First bet is for there to be Over 55 Booking Points (yellow = 10, red = 25) at odds of 2.05 with William Hill.

This is more of a ‘situation’ type bet that a statistical one. Real Sociedad lead the tie 3-1 coming into this, but Villarreal’s consolation goal means that s 2-0 win would suffice tonight to see them through.

The Yellow Submarine have been excellent at home this year. In La Liga they have P9 W6 D2 L1, conceding just 6 goals. They played Barca at the weekend and were leading 1-0 until an utterly ridiculous free kick from Messi in the 90th minute ensured Barca left with a point.

I have no doubt that Sociedad will come here and look to sit deep, defend and hit on the counter. I don’t think anyone can blame them really based on how strong Villarreal are at home. No doubt the game v Barca took it out of Villarreal somewhat, with CB Musacchio suffering a suspected broken wrist and Jaume Costa receiving his marching orders.

I still think they will win tonight, they look a nice price at around the 1.80+ mark too – I will probably be backing them. There’s every chance that Sociedad’s counter approach will work will though and I wouldn’t be surprised if they found the net.

This sort of game and scenario makes cards a likely prospect. I think Sociedad will look to waste time at every opportunity, even early on in the game. If they can hold out and frustrate Villarreal, the home side will get frustrated and moan to the ref. 3 of the 6 cards in Villarreal v Barca were for dissent, Spanish refs are not afraid to book players for that.

The counter approach suggests cards too. No doubt Villarreal will have Sociedad camped in their half for periods of the game and if a counter ensues, Villarreal know they cannot afford to concede, as this would mean they would need to win 3-1 to send it into ET or 4-1 to win outright. Much easier just to win 2-0!

The first leg saw 5 cards, but second legs are generally where you see the most cards, especially when the game is nicely poised like this one.

These sides played here in La Liga back in September, with the home side running out 2-1 winners. There were 8 cards that day and I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar here tonight.

The ref for this game is David Fernandez Borbalan. He has shown 54 cards in 8 Spanish games this term – an average of 6.75 p/g. He has shown 6 or more in 6/8 of these – a strike rate of 75%.

The last game he officiated was the match between Bilbao and Barca in this competition, last week. He showed 11 cards in this one, including booking 3 Barca players for dissent over a penalty, which wasn’t given. This further backs up my dissent theory.

Not my usual stat analysis, but for cup games most of that goes out the window generally. Happy to have £20 on this based on the situation. Only other firm offering a price is 888sport who go 1.89 for the same bet.
SDPW +1025.55
Stake: 20 2.05William Hill
Bets Placed

Simon (+13,668.63) bet £20.00 on this tip.


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