Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona 60 or More Booking Points

Football - Copa del Rey - 05 Jan 20:15

Two tips from Spain tonight, and they both come from the Copa del Rey 1st leg between Athletic Bilbao and Barcelona. The first one is a double stake, not the most eye catching of odds, but it still offers value all the same. I’m backing there to be 60 or more booking points (yellow = 10, red = 25) at odds of 1.72 with Skybet.

I’m expecting a good game here. These two sides have met 9 times since the start of 2015, in various competitions including the CdR, La Liga and the Super Cup. Bilbao often up their game when they play Barcelona, especially at home. Barca have only won by more than 1 goal in 2 of their last 14 trips to San Mames. I expect a close game here, and cards to follow.

In the last 10 meetings, there have been 69 cards shown – an average of 6.9 cards per game. This bet has won in 8/10 – a strike rate of 80% and suggests odds of 1.25 for this fixture. If this was a league game, I don’t think we’d get these odds. I think Bilbao will still take this cup game seriously, and Barca will have to match them, as they will want to take an advantage into the home leg.

At Bilbao, the card totals of the past 5 meetings have been as follows; 9,9,6,10,6 – an average of 8 cards per game when Bilbao play host. No matter which way you look at it, it’s clear these odds represent value.

History tells us that we wont need to simply rely on Bilbao to pick up the cards (leads me onto my next tip) as Barca average 2.6 cards per game across the last 10 renewals of this matchup.

The ref for this one is David Fernandez Borbalan. He has shown 43 cards in 7 games in Spain this season – an average of 6.14 p/g. He has shown over this mark in 5/7 a strike rate of 71%.

Next highest is around the 1.65 mark, and the stats suggest even that is too high. I expect this to shorten near kick off, especially if Luis Enrique decides to start the likes of Alcacer and rest any one of Messi, Suarez or Neymar.
SDPW +1025.55
Stake: 20 1.72Skybet
Bets Placed
Simon

Simon (+13,668.63) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.72
HunterUk

HunterUk (+2,832.68) bet £20.00 on this tip.

1.72

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