Mensur Suljovic 2-0 Correct Score v Daryl Gurney

Darts - World Grand Prix - 03 Oct 20:00

An early tip because this is the outstanding value in this market. Everyone generally goes 6/4 across the board on this. Skybet go 2/1. I would have Suljovic about 5/4 in this market, and, am therefore delighted to be getting 2/1.

Lets start with the strengths of Suljovic's performances in recent months. In Pro tour events since the 30th of April, he has 6 last 16 places, including yesterday on Saturday; 5 Quarter Final finishes, a Semi final place achieved on this past Friday, and a Final place achieved 13 days before this fixture occurs. He has failed to make it to the last 16 in just two Pro Tour events in this period. These were recently, last week in fact. However, this was after a run to the final, and several runs on the European Tour, and he could therefore be excused these poor showings.

On the European Tour so far, he has a victory, a Final, and a Quarter Final in his last 3 appearances, with the two runs to the final of an event coming in the space of the last month.

Aside from Michael van Gerwen, he is the highest earning darts player in terms of ranking event prize money since the World Matchplay. To describe him as inform does not quite justify how well he has been playing.

The key to his game is doubles. His ability to hit double 14 and, to be fair other doubles, puts him in at least the top 5 in the world in this category, maybe even the top 3. What he has improved this year though is his scoring. If you look at his averages since the World Matchplay, he has the fourth highest average, at 98.74. Allied to his superb double hitting, he becomes all of a sudden a fantastic proposition as a darts player.

When you also add in that he is a semi finalist from last year playing at a lower level than he has been this year, and you suddenly find yourself with a very promising prospect for this year's World Grand Prix.

In terms of why Gurney is priced the way he is, this comes down to the simple fact that Gurney is an Irishman playing in front of an Irish crowd. He is certainly a good player but his form is not a patch on Suljovic, something I will discuss in a moment. The key issue when backing an Irishman at this event is that, certainly for the first 4-5 sessions, the crowd is relatively sparse at this event. It builds towards the final on Saturday but, for a first round contest on the Monday, with fans having already gotten to see the darts at Dublin in the Premier League, they do not turn up in as many numbers as would be hoped. Therefore, I feel that the atmosphere will be fine for Sujovic in this event.

Alongside this, Gurney's form this year has admittedly taken a spike after a good performance yesterday, on Saturday, reaching the Semi Finals of a Players Championship Event. However, I would make the point that his draw was particularly kind, in that the highest ranked opponent he faced throughout this run was Ian White, whose form has dipped in recent times. In addition, Gurney's recent injury has not been taken into account. An injury to his throwing arm put him out of action for over a month before this event. Certainly, it has healed to the point he can play reasonable darts, but you have to wonder what effect it will have on him playing on the big stage.

Finally, it must also be noted that Gurney, in two attempts, has never won on the Grand Prix stage. He has run into Robert Thornton and Adrian Lewis on both occasions. However, he did not raise his level significantly in these matches. The format simply does not suit him. His best part of his game is his scoring. His doubles can verge on appalling at times, and I can see him giving Suljovic too great a start in legs to be able to come back into the match.

Therefore, I feel that we have, past MVG, the most inform player in darts, against a player coming back from a significant injury. I will happily take the risk on Suljovic getting the job done in two sets at these prices.
Toby +73.60
Stake: 20 3.00Skybet
Best Odds

Posted 2 years ago

3.00
Bets Placed
CJ

CJ (+3,391.40) bet £5.00 on this tip.

3.00
Adriano

Adriano (-195.14) bet £20.00 on this tip.

2.60
SW

SW (+10,150.17) bet £20.00 on this tip.

2.50
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