Jamie Caven v Kevin Painter

Darts - PDC World Darts Championship - 15 Dec 19:15

Jamie Caven v Kevin Painter

PDC Ranking: 30 v 46

Best Result in Major this year: World Championship 2016, Last 16 v World Championship 2016, Last 32.

Average of their three dart average in the past year: 90.43 v 90.72

Win Percentage in the past year (Number of matches played): 55.79% (95) v 51.25% (80)


Having seen a lot of people tipping up Painter for this match, and having seen the odds come in on Painter, I think that, from a purely value perspective, Caven is a far better pick here. There are very few players I would put Kevin Painter at odds on against in this tournament. One of them certainly is not Jamie Caven.

It is clear that nostalgia has led to a lot of people backing Painter with the belief that he can find his best game here. I cannot see it.

He has dropped out of the World top 32 and is therefore not seeded for the first time I believe since he moved to the PDC. There is a clear reason for this. He simply is nowhere near the level he has been previously. As his ranking has dropped, he has been reliant on qualifying for majors through the floor events. His inability to qualify for any through those events sums up his drop in form. He was 48th in the Pro tour rankings, in contrast to Caven, who finished in 32nd place.

Painter does have a good record in getting past the first round of this event. However, in the last two years, his first round opponents have been Boris Koltsov and Kim Viljanen. He followed victories against these two rather poor opponents, and he followed these with two losses in the next round.

There is very little to give anyone hope that Painter can produce better form here, other than the fact that Caven is not in good form himself.

He has had little success on the tour in the last 6 months, with very few victories. He has not won on tour since the 1st of October (Painter's last was the 21st of October). He has not won in a major event all year and his game has clearly had some issues.

However, and this is where I feel it needs to be stressed, he has at least gotten himself in a position to qualify for these events, unlike Painter. He has also a not bad record in the World Championships, reaching the last 16 last year. In addition, whilst there has been a focus on how Painter played against Chisnall in the last major event before this tournament, where Painter averaged 93.26 and hit only 26.67% of his doubles (4 from 15), Caven was better in that event. Even in losing, he averaged 95.62 and hit 4/9 or 44.44% of his doubles.

In all truth, if Caven was playing a considerable amount of other players in this event, I would understand why you would want to oppose him. But, in all truth, to see lots of people backing Kevin Painter, a man who has struggled throughout the year, and has shown no signs of being able to raise his game, as he needs to here, is strange to me.

I cannot ignore the fact that I feel the odds should be even slightly favoring Caven here, and I am delighted to take 13/10 on him to win here.

As one last point, Caven has won 7 of their 11 meetings in competition. He has lost 3 of the last 4, but did win their most recent meeting this year. Again, it is not a stat to sway you either way, but it does highlight that Caven can play well against Painter and undermine the odds on shot once again.
Toby +73.60
Stake: 20 2.25BetVictor
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Posted 1 year ago

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