India v New Zealand - Both O28.5x4s

Cricket - ODI - 25 Oct 09:00

Both sides failed to hit this mark in game 1 (20 played 26) But it was a slower stoppy pitch, and it was 280 plays 280 odd.

In the 4 ODI innings on this ground we have had 29,29,26, 20.

That is an average of 26x4s per game. 3/4 scores have been 300+

Neither of these sides have massive 6 hitters, Sharma is the only one really in the top order for NZL with Pandya further down, for NZL Munro has not do it at this level, and Guptil has not in Asia, their runs with come from 3-5 who are not massive 6 hitters.

Almost 1/3 of the runs game in 4s in game 1 despite the pitch.

On this ground. Aus managed 29x4s in at total of 302 alongside 9x6s, Thats 56% in boundaries in the other game here 51% of runs were scored in boundaries.

Kohli has just 96x6s in 200 ODIs Williamson 39 in 115.

If this game was 300 v 300 given the boundary % here this bet would probably sail in, given that we could afford 10x6s along side 29x4s in each Innings.

Given that both the previous games have featured sides who hit hordes of 6s (England and Aus) I think this line is a little low. 8.5 for both sides to go above the average by 10% seems generous.

1/3 of the runs on this ground game from 4s average score here is 310.5. That gives us 103.5 runs in 4s, we need 116.

NZL average less than 4x6s a game this year, India about 5.5. whereas England for example average nearly 6.

So I am expecting a high scorer, but with a lower % of 6s than in the previous two games, and that would do us nicely.
DRS +3804.81
Stake: 10 8.50Paddy Power
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Posted 2 months ago

8.50
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